2026 FIFA World Cup · 终极预测报告
ELO + Poisson + 12 因子综合模型 · 10,000 次蒙特卡洛模拟 · 2026-06-25 18:05 UTC
2022回测准确率
49%
小组头名预测 (随机25%)
数据源
FIFA + Wiki
ELO · Poisson · MC
实时比分 · Live Scoreboard
自动刷新 · 每1秒 (实时)
已赛结果确认
8场小组赛已完赛。ELO评分已自动更新 (K=60 世界杯权重)。绿色左侧边框 = 已赛确认
| 组 | 主队 | 比分 | 客队 | ELO变化 |
|---|
| A | Mexico | 2-0 | South Africa | +11 / -11 |
| A | South Korea | 2-1 | Czech Republic | +23 / -23 |
| B | Canada | 1-1 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | -9 / +9 |
| B | Qatar | 1-1 | Switzerland | +19 / -19 |
| C | Brazil | 1-1 | Morocco | +5 / -5 |
| C | Haiti | 0-1 | Scotland | -17 / +17 |
| D | USA | 4-1 | Paraguay | +18 / -18 |
| D | Australia | 2-0 | Turkey | +31 / -31 |
夺冠概率 Top 20（蒙特卡洛 10,000 次模拟）
ELO评分 + Poisson进球模型 · 已赛ELO已更新 · 含加时+点球决胜 · 数据截至 2026-06-25 18:05 UTC
| # | 球队 | 夺冠 | 概率条 | 小组出线 | 小组第1 | 级别 | ELO |
|---|
| 1 | Spain | 12.8% ↑0.9 | | 92.6% ↑0.3 | 71.0% | T1 | 2235 |
| 2 | Brazil | 10.9% ↑0.1 | | 77.4% ↓0.2 | 43.1% | T1 | 2031 |
| 3 | France | 10.7% ↓0.5 | | 87.8% ↓0.1 | 63.7% | T1 | 2209 |
| 4 | Argentina | 8.8% ↓0.8 | | 88.1% ↓0.5 | 65.7% | T1 | 2189 |
| 5 | England | 8.3% ↓0.6 | | 88.4% ↓0.4 | 64.2% | T1 | 2155 |
| 6 | Germany | 8.0% ↑0.6 | | 88.4% ↓0.7 | 66.1% | T1 | 2029 |
| 7 | Netherlands | 7.0% ↑0.4 | | 77.4% ↓0.1 | 52.0% | T1 | 2069 |
| 8 | Morocco | 6.2% ↓0.3 | | 72.7% ↓0.3 | 35.5% | T1 | 2080 |
| 9 | Portugal | 4.8% ↓0.2 | | 84.1% ↓0.1 | 58.1% | T1 | 2077 |
| 10 | Turkey | 3.6% ↓0.1 | | 35.2% | 7.7% | T2 | 1753 |
| 11 | Belgium | 3.5% ↑0.1 | | 81.6% ↑0.6 | 55.1% | T1 | 2042 |
| 12 | Switzerland | 1.5% ↑0.3 | | 63.5% ↓1.1 | 36.9% | T2 | 1902 |
| 13 | USA | 1.5% | | 79.1% ↓0.2 | 51.7% | T2 | 1898 |
| 14 | Uruguay | 1.3% ↑0.2 | | 65.2% ↓1.2 | 21.0% | T1 | 1932 |
| 15 | Mexico | 1.2% | | 81.2% ↓1.3 | 50.6% | T2 | 1943 |
| 16 | Croatia | 0.9% ↓0.1 | | 62.6% ↓1.1 | 23.9% | T2 | 1999 |
| 17 | Colombia | 0.9% ↑0.1 | | 65.5% ↑0.3 | 27.6% | T2 | 1963 |
| 18 | Senegal | 0.9% | | 51.1% ↑0.1 | 17.6% | T2 | 1972 |
| 19 | Japan | 0.9% ↓0.1 | | 53.4% ↑2.1 | 23.3% | T2 | 1940 |
| 20 | Norway | 0.8% ↓0.2 | | 49.9% | 16.5% | T2 | 1802 |
12 因子场外因素综合（场外维度）
| # | 因子 | 权重 | 主要受益者 | 主要受损者 | 影响描述 |
|---|
| 1 | 定位球威胁 | 5% | 英格兰/德国/荷兰 | 西班牙/日本 | 英格兰定位球转化28%碾压级 |
| 2 | 点球大战历史 | 3% | 德国/阿根廷/克罗地亚 | 英格兰/西班牙/荷兰 | 英格兰1-4(20%) VS 德国5-1(83%) |
| 3 | 高原效应 | 3% | 墨西哥 | 南非/捷克 | Azteca 2250m氧气少23% |
| 4 | 休息日不对称 | 4% | G/H/I组 | J/K/L组 | J/K/L组R32前仅2天恢复 |
| 5 | 球迷基数 | 3% | 墨西哥/美国 | 亚洲/非洲 | 3700万墨裔在美，半个主场 |
| 6 | 黄牌/红牌风险 | 2% | — | 墨西哥 | 墨西哥首场3红，淘汰赛隐患 |
| 7 | 板凳深度 | 5% | 法国/英格兰/西班牙 | 挪威/摩洛哥 | 加时赛后差距指数级放大 |
| 8 | Plan B战术 | 3% | 法国/阿根廷 | 西班牙/摩洛哥 | 西班牙只会Tiki-taka，控不住就崩 |
| 9 | VAR点球倾向 | 2% | 英格兰/阿根廷 | — | 凯恩92%点球率=基本每场1球 |
| 10 | 球场宽度 | 1% | 巴西(边锋) | — | AT&T 72m极宽→巴西边锋起飞 |
| 11 | 疲劳指数 | 3% | 阿根廷(梅西仅2800min) | 英格兰(贝林4800+) | 贝林厄姆赛季近5000分钟→决赛堪忧 |
| 12 | 历史克制关系 | 2% | 法国(对巴西) | 巴西(对法国) | 巴西"恐法症"1998/2006连败 |
夺冠赔率共识（多平台综合）
来源：Bet365 / William Hill / Pinnacle / Betfair / OddsPortal — 各平台权重不超过12%
| 排名 | 球队 | 综合赔率 | 隐含概率 | 趋势 |
|---|
| 1 | 西班牙 | 5.50 | 18.2% | ↑ |
| 2 | 法国 | 5.75 | 17.4% | → |
| 3 | 阿根廷 | 6.50 | 15.4% | → |
| 4 | 英格兰 | 7.00 | 14.3% | → |
| 5 | 巴西 | 7.50 | 13.3% | ↓ |
| 6 | 葡萄牙 | 11.00 | 9.1% | → |
| 7 | 德国 | 12.00 | 8.3% | → |
| 8 | 荷兰 | 17.00 | 5.9% | → |
| 9 | 摩洛哥 | 21.00 | 4.8% | ↑ |
| 10 | 比利时 | 26.00 | 3.8% | ↓ |
多源数据聚合 · 综合信心指数
6大数据源 · 每源权重≤12% · 赔率30% + 社媒25% + 球迷社区25% + 专家20% · 数据截至 2026-06-25 18:05 UTC
| # | 球队 | 综合指数 | 赔率信心 | 社媒情绪 | 球迷热度 | 专家评级 | 趋势 |
|---|
| 1 | Brazil | | 0.52 | 0.11 | 0.94 | 5.00 | ↑ |
| 2 | England | | 0.72 | 0.38 | 0.58 | 2.94 | ↑ |
| 3 | Mexico | | 0.00 | 0.90 | 0.58 | 3.23 | ↑ |
| 4 | Scotland | | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 | 3.83 | ↑ |
| 5 | USA | | 0.00 | 0.82 | 0.36 | 2.06 | → |
| 6 | Argentina | | 0.76 | 1.00 | 0.15 | 0.88 | ↓ |
| 7 | Morocco | | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.76 | → |
| 8 | Czech Republic | | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.28 | 1.47 | → |
| 9 | Portugal | | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.15 | 0.88 | ↓ |
| 10 | Canada | | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.36 | 1.76 | → |
| 11 | Germany | | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.23 | 1.18 | → |
| 12 | Haiti | | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.23 | 1.18 | → |
| 13 | Croatia | | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.26 | 1.47 | → |
| 14 | Egypt | | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.15 | 1.18 | ↓ |
| 15 | Australia | | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.26 | 1.47 | → |
| 16 | Spain | | 0.77 | 0.50 | 0.05 | 0.29 | ↓ |
| 17 | Uruguay | | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 0.59 | ↓ |
| 18 | Netherlands | | 0.44 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.05 | → |
| 19 | Ghana | | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.20 | 0.88 | → |
| 20 | Switzerland | | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 1.18 | → |
数据源: Bet365/William Hill/Pinnacle/Betfair | Twitter/Reddit/Weibo/虎扑/懂球帝 | BBC/Guardian/ESPN/L'Equipe/Gazzetta/The Athletic/Kicker/Marca
预测夺冠路径（蒙特卡洛最高概率路径）
基于 10,000 次蒙特卡洛模拟的最可能淘汰赛路径。金色 = 胜者晋级，数字 = 晋级概率。
淘汰赛预测 (R32 → 冠军)
基于蒙特卡洛模拟的每轮对阵预测。绿色 = 主队胜率，蓝色 = 客队胜率。🏆 = 预测晋级。
| 轮次 | 主队 | 主胜概率 | | 客胜概率 | 客队 |
|---|
| R32 | Mexico | | vs | | Morocco 🏆 |
| R32 | Switzerland 🏆 | | vs | | Australia |
| R32 | Brazil 🏆 | | vs | | Ivory Coast |
| R32 | USA | | vs | | Japan 🏆 |
| R32 | Germany 🏆 | | vs | | South Korea |
| R32 | Netherlands 🏆 | | vs | | Qatar |
| R32 | Belgium 🏆 | | vs | | Senegal |
| R32 | Spain 🏆 | | vs | | Austria |
| R32 | France 🏆 | | vs | | Colombia |
| R32 | Argentina 🏆 | | vs | | Croatia |
| R32 | Portugal 🏆 | | vs | | Egypt |
| R32 | England 🏆 | | vs | | Uruguay |
| R16 | Morocco 🏆 | | vs | | Switzerland |
| R16 | Brazil 🏆 | | vs | | Japan |
| R16 | Germany | | vs | | Netherlands 🏆 |
| R16 | Belgium | | vs | | Spain 🏆 |
| R16 | France 🏆 | | vs | | Argentina |
| R16 | Portugal | | vs | | England 🏆 |
| QF | Morocco 🏆 | | vs | | Brazil |
| QF | Netherlands 🏆 | | vs | | Netherlands 🏆 |
| QF | Spain 🏆 | | vs | | France |
| QF | England 🏆 | | vs | | England 🏆 |
| SF | Morocco 🏆 | | vs | | Netherlands |
| SF | Spain 🏆 | | vs | | England |
小组出线概率一览
基于蒙特卡洛 10,000 次模拟。前两名直接晋级，最佳8个第3名晋级。金色 = 小组头名热门，银灰 = 小组第二热门。
Group A
| # | Team | Adv | 1st |
|---|
| 1 | Mexico ↓1.3 | 81% | 51% |
| 2 | South Korea | 78% | 41% |
| 3 | Czech Republic ↑1.1 | 27% | 6% |
| 4 | South Africa ↑0.2 | 14% | 3% |
Group B
| # | Team | Adv | 1st |
|---|
| 1 | Switzerland ↓1.1 | 64% | 37% |
| 2 | Qatar ↓0.1 | 54% | 24% |
| 3 | Canada ↑0.6 | 42% | 20% |
| 4 | Bosnia and Herzegovina ↑0.7 | 40% | 19% |
Group C
| # | Team | Adv | 1st |
|---|
| 1 | Brazil ↓0.2 | 77% | 43% |
| 2 | Morocco ↓0.3 | 73% | 36% |
| 3 | Scotland ↑0.6 | 47% | 20% |
| 4 | Haiti | 3% | 1% |
Group D
| # | Team | Adv | 1st |
|---|
| 1 | USA ↓0.2 | 79% | 52% |
| 2 | Australia ↓0.3 | 78% | 40% |
| 3 | Turkey | 35% | 8% |
| 4 | Paraguay ↑0.5 | 7% | 1% |
Group E
| # | Team | Adv | 1st |
|---|
| 1 | Germany ↓0.7 | 88% | 66% |
| 2 | Ivory Coast ↓1.1 | 56% | 19% |
| 3 | Ecuador ↑1.3 | 37% | 10% |
| 4 | Curaçao ↑0.5 | 19% | 4% |
Group F
| # | Team | Adv | 1st |
|---|
| 1 | Netherlands ↓0.1 | 77% | 52% |
| 2 | Japan ↑2.1 | 53% | 23% |
| 3 | Sweden ↓1.1 | 37% | 13% |
| 4 | Tunisia ↓0.8 | 33% | 12% |
Group G
| # | Team | Adv | 1st |
|---|
| 1 | Belgium ↑0.6 | 82% | 55% |
| 2 | Egypt ↓0.2 | 53% | 21% |
| 3 | Iran ↓1.0 | 51% | 20% |
| 4 | New Zealand ↑0.5 | 14% | 4% |
Group H
| # | Team | Adv | 1st |
|---|
| 1 | Spain ↑0.3 | 93% | 71% |
| 2 | Uruguay ↓1.2 | 65% | 21% |
| 3 | Cape Verde ↑0.9 | 29% | 6% |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia ↓0.1 | 13% | 2% |
Group I
| # | Team | Adv | 1st |
|---|
| 1 | France ↓0.1 | 88% | 64% |
| 2 | Senegal ↑0.1 | 51% | 18% |
| 3 | Norway | 50% | 16% |
| 4 | Iraq | 11% | 2% |
Group J
| # | Team | Adv | 1st |
|---|
| 1 | Argentina ↓0.5 | 88% | 66% |
| 2 | Austria ↓0.8 | 55% | 19% |
| 3 | Algeria ↑1.0 | 41% | 12% |
| 4 | Jordan ↑0.3 | 16% | 3% |
Group K
| # | Team | Adv | 1st |
|---|
| 1 | Portugal ↓0.1 | 84% | 58% |
| 2 | Colombia ↑0.3 | 65% | 28% |
| 3 | Uzbekistan ↓0.1 | 25% | 8% |
| 4 | DR Congo ↓0.1 | 25% | 7% |
Group L
| # | Team | Adv | 1st |
|---|
| 1 | England ↓0.4 | 88% | 64% |
| 2 | Croatia ↓1.1 | 63% | 24% |
| 3 | Ghana ↑0.7 | 28% | 7% |
| 4 | Panama ↑0.7 | 21% | 5% |
小组赛 72 场完整预测
含 xG / 半场比分 / 全场比分 / 黄红牌 / 角球 / 犯规 / 射门(射正) / 控球率 / 越位 · 已赛以CF标记 · 绿色边框=确认
| 组 | 日期 | 主队 | 客队 | xG | HT | FT | 黄牌 | 红牌 | 角球 | 犯规 | 射门(射正) | 控球 | 越位 |
|---|
| A | 2026-06-12 | Mexico | South Korea | 2.16-1.32 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 2+1 | 0+0 | 11 | 33 | 29(10) | 52.9-47.1 | 2 |
| A | 2026-06-12 | South Africa | Czech Republic | 1.39-1.79 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1+1 | 0+0 | 9 | 25 | 27(9) | 48.7-51.3 | 1 |
| A | 2026-06-18 | Mexico | Czech Republic | 2.04-1.19 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 1+0 | 0+0 | 12 | 35 | 25(9) | 56.2-43.8 | 2 |
| A | 2026-06-18 | South Korea | South Africa | 2.02-1.43 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 3+3 | 0+0 | 11 | 22 | 25(9) | 54.6-45.4 | 4 |
| A | 2026-06-24 | Mexico | South Africa | 2.11-1.05 | CF | 2-0 | 3+3 | 0+0 | 6 | 33 | 21(7) | 57.5-42.5 | 4 |
| A | 2026-06-24 | South Korea | Czech Republic | 1.84-1.68 | CF | 2-1 | 2+1 | 0+0 | 11 | 22 | 24(9) | 53.3-46.7 | 3 |
| B | 2026-06-12 | Switzerland | Canada | 1.72-1.31 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 3+3 | 0+0 | 16 | 17 | 23(9) | 54.1-45.9 | 1 |
| B | 2026-06-12 | Qatar | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1.43-1.21 | 0-1 | 0-4 | 2+2 | 0+0 | 9 | 17 | 18(7) | 50.8-49.2 | 2 |
| B | 2026-06-18 | Switzerland | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2.04-1.47 | 2-0 | 4-2 | 2+2 | 0+0 | 6 | 18 | 24(9) | 56.4-43.6 | 1 |
| B | 2026-06-18 | Canada | Qatar | 1.27-1.12 | 2-1 | 3-1 | 2+3 | 1+0 | 12 | 23 | 16(5) | 51.5-48.5 | 4 |
| B | 2026-06-24 | Switzerland | Qatar | 1.49-1.27 | CF | 1-1 | 2+3 | 0+0 | 7 | 20 | 23(9) | 55.6-44.4 | 3 |
| B | 2026-06-24 | Canada | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1.73-1.29 | CF | 1-1 | 2+3 | 0+0 | 9 | 29 | 24(9) | 52.4-47.6 | 2 |
| C | 2026-06-12 | Brazil | Morocco | 2.19-1.91 | CF | 1-1 | 2+2 | 0+0 | 10 | 22 | 29(11) | 50.3-49.7 | 4 |
| C | 2026-06-12 | Scotland | Haiti | 1.80-1.18 | CF | 1-0 | 4+4 | 1+0 | 10 | 39 | 24(9) | 56.2-43.8 | 1 |
| C | 2026-06-18 | Brazil | Scotland | 2.42-1.31 | 2-1 | 3-3 | 2+3 | 0+0 | 6 | 15 | 33(12) | 57.3-42.7 | 1 |
| C | 2026-06-18 | Morocco | Haiti | 2.64-1.07 | 1-0 | 2-2 | 3+4 | 0+0 | 13 | 20 | 31(11) | 63.2-36.8 | 1 |
| C | 2026-06-24 | Brazil | Haiti | 2.74-0.97 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2+2 | 0+0 | 5 | 23 | 26(9) | 63.5-36.5 | 3 |
| C | 2026-06-24 | Morocco | Scotland | 2.33-1.44 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 2+2 | 0+0 | 11 | 24 | 19(6) | 57.0-43.0 | 3 |
| D | 2026-06-12 | USA | Paraguay | 2.12-0.91 | CF | 4-1 | 1+2 | 0+0 | 5 | 24 | 28(10) | 54.9-45.1 | 3 |
| D | 2026-06-12 | Australia | Turkey | 1.13-1.94 | CF | 2-0 | 2+3 | 0+0 | 15 | 29 | 23(9) | 51.1-48.9 | 2 |
| D | 2026-06-18 | USA | Australia | 2.08-1.25 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3+3 | 0+0 | 11 | 24 | 15(5) | 52.5-47.5 | 1 |
| D | 2026-06-18 | Paraguay | Turkey | 0.82-1.97 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1+1 | 1+0 | 14 | 33 | 23(9) | 48.7-51.3 | 1 |
| D | 2026-06-24 | USA | Turkey | 1.40-1.39 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 3+4 | 0+0 | 12 | 20 | 28(10) | 53.6-46.4 | 1 |
| D | 2026-06-24 | Paraguay | Australia | 1.25-1.73 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 2+1 | 0+0 | 10 | 25 | 24(9) | 47.6-52.4 | 1 |
| E | 2026-06-12 | Germany | Ecuador | 2.54-1.19 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1+1 | 0+0 | 7 | 25 | 26(9) | 57.5-42.5 | 1 |
| E | 2026-06-12 | Ivory Coast | Curaçao | 2.23-1.31 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 2+1 | 0+0 | 10 | 21 | 28(10) | 54.2-45.8 | 1 |
| E | 2026-06-18 | Germany | Ivory Coast | 2.67-1.58 | 4-0 | 8-2 | 2+3 | 0+0 | 9 | 32 | 29(10) | 58.6-41.4 | 3 |
| E | 2026-06-18 | Ecuador | Curaçao | 1.68-1.24 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 2+1 | 0+0 | 6 | 30 | 19(6) | 55.3-44.7 | 5 |
| E | 2026-06-24 | Germany | Curaçao | 3.21-1.11 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 0+1 | 0+0 | 12 | 29 | 38(13) | 62.8-37.2 | 3 |
| E | 2026-06-24 | Ecuador | Ivory Coast | 1.40-1.77 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2+2 | 0+0 | 9 | 19 | 25(9) | 51.1-48.9 | 6 |
| F | 2026-06-12 | Netherlands | Japan | 2.46-1.73 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2+2 | 0+0 | 10 | 26 | 23(8) | 53.5-46.5 | 2 |
| F | 2026-06-12 | Sweden | Tunisia | 1.17-1.14 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 0+1 | 0+0 | 11 | 22 | 14(5) | 49.6-50.4 | 2 |
| F | 2026-06-18 | Netherlands | Sweden | 1.67-0.95 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1+2 | 0+0 | 10 | 28 | 20(7) | 59.3-40.7 | 2 |
| F | 2026-06-18 | Japan | Tunisia | 2.13-1.68 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2+2 | 0+0 | 9 | 23 | 26(10) | 55.4-44.6 | 2 |
| F | 2026-06-24 | Netherlands | Tunisia | 2.72-1.50 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2+2 | 0+0 | 15 | 25 | 28(10) | 58.9-41.1 | 2 |
| F | 2026-06-24 | Japan | Sweden | 1.31-1.06 | 0-2 | 0-4 | 1+2 | 0+0 | 4 | 25 | 23(8) | 55.8-44.2 | 2 |
| G | 2026-06-12 | Belgium | Egypt | 2.40-1.63 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1+2 | 0+0 | 10 | 17 | 26(9) | 57.6-42.4 | 2 |
| G | 2026-06-12 | Iran | New Zealand | 2.22-1.25 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2+1 | 0+0 | 9 | 25 | 35(13) | 57.5-42.5 | 1 |
| G | 2026-06-18 | Belgium | Iran | 2.34-1.54 | 2-0 | 4-1 | 2+3 | 0+0 | 11 | 22 | 24(9) | 55.0-45.0 | 1 |
| G | 2026-06-18 | Egypt | New Zealand | 2.34-1.29 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 3+3 | 0+0 | 13 | 24 | 30(11) | 54.8-45.2 | 1 |
| G | 2026-06-24 | Belgium | New Zealand | 3.00-1.12 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 2+3 | 0+0 | 4 | 23 | 43(15) | 62.4-37.6 | 4 |
| G | 2026-06-24 | Egypt | Iran | 1.82-1.78 | 2-1 | 3-1 | 1+0 | 0+0 | 5 | 25 | 28(10) | 47.3-52.7 | 0 |
| H | 2026-06-12 | Spain | Cape Verde | 3.38-1.33 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 3+3 | 0+0 | 15 | 23 | 31(11) | 66.9-33.1 | 1 |
| H | 2026-06-12 | Uruguay | Saudi Arabia | 2.17-0.98 | 1-1 | 3-1 | 3+3 | 0+0 | 7 | 30 | 22(8) | 57.3-42.7 | 0 |
| H | 2026-06-18 | Spain | Saudi Arabia | 3.37-0.94 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3+3 | 0+0 | 9 | 26 | 19(7) | 66.6-33.4 | 3 |
| H | 2026-06-18 | Uruguay | Cape Verde | 2.17-1.38 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0+0 | 0+1 | 9 | 29 | 21(7) | 57.6-42.4 | 1 |
| H | 2026-06-24 | Spain | Uruguay | 2.80-1.73 | 1-1 | 4-1 | 3+4 | 0+0 | 18 | 25 | 23(8) | 59.3-40.7 | 1 |
| H | 2026-06-24 | Cape Verde | Saudi Arabia | 1.66-1.18 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2+2 | 0+0 | 7 | 22 | 19(6) | 49.7-50.3 | 4 |
| I | 2026-06-12 | France | Senegal | 2.87-1.73 | 1-1 | 3-2 | 2+2 | 0+0 | 11 | 28 | 25(9) | 56.4-43.6 | 3 |
| I | 2026-06-12 | Norway | Iraq | 2.14-1.06 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 1+2 | 0+0 | 10 | 27 | 30(11) | 53.7-46.3 | 3 |
| I | 2026-06-18 | France | Norway | 2.84-1.67 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4+4 | 0+0 | 12 | 24 | 32(11) | 60.4-39.6 | 1 |
| I | 2026-06-18 | Senegal | Iraq | 2.22-1.08 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 4+3 | 0+0 | 12 | 31 | 29(10) | 57.7-42.3 | 3 |
| I | 2026-06-24 | France | Iraq | 3.25-0.95 | 4-0 | 5-0 | 0+1 | 0+0 | 9 | 27 | 32(11) | 64.1-35.9 | 2 |
| I | 2026-06-24 | Senegal | Norway | 1.94-1.89 | 1-2 | 1-6 | 3+2 | 0+0 | 9 | 23 | 30(10) | 54.0-46.0 | 0 |
| J | 2026-06-12 | Argentina | Austria | 2.72-1.66 | 3-1 | 5-2 | 3+3 | 0+0 | 6 | 23 | 30(11) | 61.1-38.9 | 3 |
| J | 2026-06-12 | Algeria | Jordan | 2.06-1.37 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 1+0 | 0+0 | 6 | 28 | 30(11) | 53.6-46.4 | 1 |
| J | 2026-06-18 | Argentina | Algeria | 2.93-1.49 | 3-0 | 6-1 | 2+1 | 0+0 | 6 | 24 | 34(12) | 61.7-38.3 | 4 |
| J | 2026-06-18 | Austria | Jordan | 2.29-1.28 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 2+2 | 0+0 | 10 | 31 | 33(12) | 54.3-45.7 | 2 |
| J | 2026-06-24 | Argentina | Jordan | 3.35-1.14 | 3-0 | 6-0 | 2+2 | 0+0 | 14 | 22 | 32(11) | 65.3-34.7 | 1 |
| J | 2026-06-24 | Austria | Algeria | 2.00-1.67 | 1-0 | 1-3 | 3+4 | 0+0 | 7 | 37 | 25(9) | 50.6-49.4 | 1 |
| K | 2026-06-12 | Portugal | Colombia | 2.12-1.56 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4+5 | 0+0 | 7 | 29 | 30(11) | 53.4-46.6 | 4 |
| K | 2026-06-12 | Uzbekistan | DR Congo | 1.69-1.69 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2+3 | 0+0 | 7 | 23 | 22(7) | 50.8-49.2 | 0 |
| K | 2026-06-18 | Portugal | Uzbekistan | 2.82-1.24 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2+1 | 0+0 | 15 | 22 | 34(12) | 60.1-39.9 | 4 |
| K | 2026-06-18 | Colombia | DR Congo | 2.13-1.27 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2+3 | 0+0 | 4 | 31 | 28(10) | 57.5-42.5 | 2 |
| K | 2026-06-24 | Portugal | DR Congo | 2.85-1.25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4+4 | 0+0 | 16 | 24 | 30(11) | 60.8-39.2 | 2 |
| K | 2026-06-24 | Colombia | Uzbekistan | 2.11-1.25 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 2+2 | 0+0 | 17 | 34 | 33(12) | 56.7-43.3 | 4 |
| L | 2026-06-12 | England | Croatia | 2.73-1.79 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 2+3 | 0+0 | 5 | 27 | 23(8) | 54.4-45.6 | 2 |
| L | 2026-06-12 | Ghana | Panama | 1.81-1.60 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2+1 | 0+0 | 16 | 28 | 26(9) | 47.3-52.7 | 3 |
| L | 2026-06-18 | England | Ghana | 3.13-1.36 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 1+1 | 0+0 | 18 | 25 | 34(12) | 63.8-36.2 | 3 |
| L | 2026-06-18 | Croatia | Panama | 2.38-1.39 | 1-0 | 3-1 | 3+2 | 0+0 | 12 | 15 | 29(10) | 56.7-43.3 | 1 |
| L | 2026-06-24 | England | Panama | 3.25-1.25 | 3-2 | 4-3 | 5+6 | 0+0 | 6 | 19 | 38(14) | 61.1-38.9 | 1 |
| L | 2026-06-24 | Croatia | Ghana | 2.29-1.52 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2+3 | 0+0 | 11 | 23 | 18(6) | 59.4-40.6 | 0 |
模型说明 · 数据来源 · 更新机制
模型架构: ELO评分系统 (FIFA 2026-06-11 排名转换) + Poisson进球分布模型 + 蒙特卡洛模拟 (10,000 次完整赛会)
动态更新: 每场已赛结果自动纳入ELO系统 (K=60 世界杯权重)。confirmed_results.py 更新后，build.py 自动重建报告。
比分生成: Poisson分布从期望进球 (xG) 抽样。上半场占全场进球的43%（基于2022世界杯实际数据）。卡牌/角球/犯规/控球基于球队风格系数+ELO差。
2022回测: 小组头名预测准确率 49%（随机基准25%），前二准确率待验证。
数据来源: Wikipedia 2026 FIFA World Cup (资格赛结果+抽签), FIFA Mens Ranking (2026-06-11), Transfermarkt (身价参考), 多方博彩平台赔率共识。
局限: 未纳入实时伤病/天气/裁判指派/更衣室动态等。模型输出为概率分布，单场比赛高度不确定。
自动部署: GitHub Actions 每30分钟运行 build.py → 更新 report_2026.html → Cloudflare Pages 自动部署。上次构建: 2026-06-25 18:05 UTC
免责: 仅供足球数据研究参考，不构成任何博彩建议。预测与实际结果可能存在显著偏差。