2026 FIFA World Cup · 终极预测报告

ELO + Poisson + 12 因子综合模型 · 10,000 次蒙特卡洛模拟 · 2026-07-01 12:29 UTC

模型冠军

Spain

概率 12.4%

2022回测准确率

48%

小组头名预测 (随机25%)

已赛确认

8 / 80

实时ELO更新

数据源

FIFA + Wiki

ELO · Poisson · MC

实时比分 · Live Scoreboard

自动刷新 · 每1秒 (实时)

当前无进行中比赛

已赛结果确认

8场小组赛已完赛。ELO评分已自动更新 (K=60 世界杯权重)。绿色左侧边框 = 已赛确认

组	主队	比分	客队	ELO变化
A	Mexico	2-0	South Africa	+11 / -11
A	South Korea	2-1	Czech Republic	+22 / -22
B	Canada	1-1	Bosnia and Herzegovina	-9 / +9
B	Qatar	1-1	Switzerland	+19 / -19
C	Brazil	1-1	Morocco	+8 / -8
C	Haiti	0-1	Scotland	-16 / +16
D	USA	4-1	Paraguay	+17 / -17
D	Australia	2-0	Turkey	+30 / -30

夺冠概率 Top 20（蒙特卡洛 10,000 次模拟）

ELO评分 + Poisson进球模型 · 已赛ELO已更新 · 含加时+点球决胜 · 数据截至 2026-07-01 12:29 UTC

#	球队	夺冠	概率条	小组出线	小组第1	级别	ELO
1	Spain	12.4% ↑0.4	12.4%	91.9% ↓0.4	70.0%	T1	2217
2	France	11.1% ↓0.1	11.1%	87.2% ↓0.8	63.3%	T1	2199
3	Brazil	10.9%	10.9%	77.8% ↑0.1	44.3%	T1	2001
4	Argentina	9.3% ↓0.3	9.3%	88.3% ↓0.3	65.8%	T1	2189
5	England	8.8% ↓0.1	8.8%	88.4% ↓0.4	64.7%	T1	2115
6	Germany	7.8% ↑0.4	7.8%	88.0% ↓1.1	66.0%	T1	1979
7	Netherlands	6.9% ↑0.3	6.9%	77.9% ↑0.4	52.4%	T1	2044
8	Morocco	6.0% ↓0.5	6.0%	73.5% ↑0.6	35.4%	T1	2077
9	Portugal	4.6% ↓0.3	4.6%	84.4% ↑0.2	57.5%	T1	2077
10	Turkey	3.7%	3.7%	35.6% ↑0.4	7.8%	T2	1754
11	Belgium	3.2% ↓0.1	3.2%	80.9%	54.2%	T1	2042
12	Switzerland	1.5% ↑0.3	1.5%	64.1% ↓0.6	37.7%	T2	1906
13	USA	1.4% ↓0.1	1.4%	79.4% ↑0.1	52.2%	T2	1905
14	Uruguay	1.2% ↑0.1	1.2%	66.8% ↑0.4	21.7%	T1	1932
15	Mexico	1.2%	1.2%	81.7% ↓0.7	50.7%	T2	1943
16	Croatia	1.0%	1.0%	63.2% ↓0.5	23.1%	T2	2024
17	Japan	0.9% ↓0.1	0.9%	52.4% ↑1.1	23.1%	T2	1940
18	Senegal	0.9% ↓0.1	0.9%	51.9% ↑0.8	18.1%	T2	1972
19	Colombia	0.8%	0.8%	65.3% ↑0.2	28.3%	T2	1966
20	Norway	0.7% ↓0.2	0.7%	50.2% ↑0.4	16.6%	T2	1800

12 因子场外因素综合（场外维度）

#	因子	权重	主要受益者	主要受损者	影响描述
1	定位球威胁	5%	英格兰/德国/荷兰	西班牙/日本	英格兰定位球转化28%碾压级
2	点球大战历史	3%	德国/阿根廷/克罗地亚	英格兰/西班牙/荷兰	英格兰1-4(20%) VS 德国5-1(83%)
3	高原效应	3%	墨西哥	南非/捷克	Azteca 2250m氧气少23%
4	休息日不对称	4%	G/H/I组	J/K/L组	J/K/L组R32前仅2天恢复
5	球迷基数	3%	墨西哥/美国	亚洲/非洲	3700万墨裔在美，半个主场
6	黄牌/红牌风险	2%	—	墨西哥	墨西哥首场3红，淘汰赛隐患
7	板凳深度	5%	法国/英格兰/西班牙	挪威/摩洛哥	加时赛后差距指数级放大
8	Plan B战术	3%	法国/阿根廷	西班牙/摩洛哥	西班牙只会Tiki-taka，控不住就崩
9	VAR点球倾向	2%	英格兰/阿根廷	—	凯恩92%点球率=基本每场1球
10	球场宽度	1%	巴西(边锋)	—	AT&T 72m极宽→巴西边锋起飞
11	疲劳指数	3%	阿根廷(梅西仅2800min)	英格兰(贝林4800+)	贝林厄姆赛季近5000分钟→决赛堪忧
12	历史克制关系	2%	法国(对巴西)	巴西(对法国)	巴西"恐法症"1998/2006连败

夺冠赔率共识（多平台综合）

来源：Bet365 / William Hill / Pinnacle / Betfair / OddsPortal — 各平台权重不超过12%

排名	球队	综合赔率	隐含概率	趋势
1	西班牙	5.50	18.2%	↑
2	法国	5.75	17.4%	→
3	阿根廷	6.50	15.4%	→
4	英格兰	7.00	14.3%	→
5	巴西	7.50	13.3%	↓
6	葡萄牙	11.00	9.1%	→
7	德国	12.00	8.3%	→
8	荷兰	17.00	5.9%	→
9	摩洛哥	21.00	4.8%	↑
10	比利时	26.00	3.8%	↓

多源数据聚合 · 综合信心指数

6大数据源 · 每源权重≤12% · 赔率30% + 社媒25% + 球迷社区25% + 专家20% · 数据截至 2026-07-01 12:29 UTC

#	球队	综合指数	赔率信心	社媒情绪	球迷热度	专家评级	趋势
1	England	1.574 ↑0.519	0.70	0.52	0.94	5.00	↑
2	Brazil	1.003 ↓0.169	0.57	0.99	0.41	2.40	→
3	France	0.938 ↑0.491	0.90	0.86	0.38	1.80	→
4	Mexico	0.894 ↑0.404	0.00	1.00	0.50	2.60	↑
5	Germany	0.675 ↑0.396	0.00	0.37	0.41	2.40	→
6	Norway	0.601	0.00	1.00	0.28	1.40	→
7	Portugal	0.592 ↑0.268	0.47	0.28	0.23	1.60	→
8	Argentina	0.571 ↑0.063	0.82	0.72	0.10	0.60	↓
9	Sweden	0.555	0.00	1.00	0.26	1.20	→
10	Ecuador	0.548 ↑0.599	0.00	0.58	0.33	1.60	→
11	USA	0.483 ↓1.067	0.00	0.96	0.17	1.00	↓
12	Netherlands	0.461 ↓0.176	0.00	0.30	0.26	1.60	→
13	Paraguay	0.460 ↓0.283	0.00	0.12	0.28	1.80	→
14	Japan	0.395 ↓0.045	0.00	1.00	0.10	0.60	↓
15	Colombia	0.364	0.00	0.70	0.11	0.80	↓
16	Uruguay	0.309	0.00	0.85	0.07	0.40	↓
17	Spain	0.307 ↑0.164	0.70	0.00	0.07	0.40	↓
18	Denmark	0.299 ↑0.350	0.00	1.00	0.04	0.20	↓
19	Chile	0.299 ↑0.350	0.00	1.00	0.04	0.20	↓
20	Panama	0.299	0.00	1.00	0.04	0.20	↓

数据源: Bet365/William Hill/Pinnacle/Betfair | Twitter/Reddit/Weibo/虎扑/懂球帝 | BBC/Guardian/ESPN/L'Equipe/Gazzetta/The Athletic/Kicker/Marca

预测夺冠路径（蒙特卡洛最高概率路径）

基于 10,000 次蒙特卡洛模拟的最可能淘汰赛路径。金色 = 胜者晋级，数字 = 晋级概率。

R32

Mexico68%

Morocco32%

Switzerland37%

Australia63%

Brazil19%

Ivory Coast81%

USA55%

Japan45%

Germany30%

South Korea70%

Netherlands12%

Qatar88%

Belgium40%

Senegal60%

Spain8%

Austria92%

France21%

Colombia79%

Argentina28%

Croatia72%

Portugal14%

Egypt86%

England26%

Uruguay74%

→

R16

Morocco27%

Switzerland73%

Brazil41%

Japan59%

Germany59%

Netherlands41%

Belgium73%

Spain27%

France49%

Argentina51%

Portugal55%

England45%

→

Morocco39%

Brazil61%

Netherlands50%

Spain47%

France53%

England50%

→

Morocco45%

Netherlands55%

Spain36%

England64%

→

FINAL

Morocco69%

Spain31%

→

CHAMPION

Spain

淘汰赛预测 (R32 → 冠军)

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的每轮对阵预测。绿色 = 主队胜率，蓝色 = 客队胜率。🏆 = 预测晋级。

轮次	主队	主胜概率		客胜概率	客队
R32	Mexico	68%	vs	32%	Morocco 🏆
R32	Switzerland 🏆	37%	vs	63%	Australia
R32	Brazil 🏆	19%	vs	81%	Ivory Coast
R32	USA	55%	vs	45%	Japan 🏆
R32	Germany 🏆	30%	vs	70%	South Korea
R32	Netherlands 🏆	12%	vs	88%	Qatar
R32	Belgium 🏆	40%	vs	60%	Senegal
R32	Spain 🏆	8%	vs	92%	Austria
R32	France 🏆	21%	vs	79%	Colombia
R32	Argentina 🏆	28%	vs	72%	Croatia
R32	Portugal 🏆	14%	vs	86%	Egypt
R32	England 🏆	26%	vs	74%	Uruguay
R16	Morocco 🏆	27%	vs	73%	Switzerland
R16	Brazil 🏆	41%	vs	59%	Japan
R16	Germany	59%	vs	41%	Netherlands 🏆
R16	Belgium	73%	vs	27%	Spain 🏆
R16	France 🏆	49%	vs	51%	Argentina
R16	Portugal	55%	vs	45%	England 🏆
QF	Morocco 🏆	39%	vs	61%	Brazil
QF	Netherlands 🏆	50%	vs	50%	Netherlands 🏆
QF	Spain 🏆	47%	vs	53%	France
QF	England 🏆	50%	vs	50%	England 🏆
SF	Morocco 🏆	45%	vs	55%	Netherlands
SF	Spain 🏆	36%	vs	64%	England

小组出线概率一览

基于蒙特卡洛 10,000 次模拟。前两名直接晋级，最佳8个第3名晋级。金色 = 小组头名热门，银灰 = 小组第二热门。

Group A

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Mexico ↓0.7	82%	51%
2	South Korea ↓0.7	78%	40%
3	Czech Republic ↑0.8	26%	6%
4	South Africa ↑0.6	14%	3%

Group B

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Switzerland ↓0.6	64%	38%
2	Qatar ↑0.8	55%	25%
3	Canada ↓0.3	41%	19%
4	Bosnia and Herzegovina ↑0.1	40%	18%

Group C

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Brazil ↑0.1	78%	44%
2	Morocco ↑0.6	73%	35%
3	Scotland ↓0.9	45%	19%
4	Haiti ↑0.2	4%	1%

Group D

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	USA ↑0.1	79%	52%
2	Australia ↓0.6	78%	39%
3	Turkey ↑0.4	36%	8%
4	Paraguay	7%	1%

Group E

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Germany ↓1.1	88%	66%
2	Ivory Coast ↓0.8	56%	20%
3	Ecuador ↑0.9	36%	10%
4	Curaçao ↑0.9	19%	4%

Group F

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Netherlands ↑0.4	78%	52%
2	Japan ↑1.1	52%	23%
3	Sweden ↓1.0	37%	13%
4	Tunisia ↓0.5	33%	12%

Group G

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Belgium	81%	54%
2	Egypt ↑0.4	54%	22%
3	Iran ↓1.4	50%	20%
4	New Zealand ↑1.0	15%	4%

Group H

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Spain ↓0.4	92%	70%
2	Uruguay ↑0.4	67%	22%
3	Cape Verde ↓0.4	28%	6%
4	Saudi Arabia ↑0.3	14%	2%

Group I

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	France ↓0.8	87%	63%
2	Senegal ↑0.8	52%	18%
3	Norway ↑0.4	50%	17%
4	Iraq ↓0.4	11%	2%

Group J

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Argentina ↓0.3	88%	66%
2	Austria ↑1.1	57%	19%
3	Algeria ↓0.3	40%	12%
4	Jordan ↓0.5	15%	3%

Group K

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Portugal ↑0.2	84%	57%
2	Colombia ↑0.2	65%	28%
3	DR Congo ↓0.1	25%	7%
4	Uzbekistan ↓0.3	25%	7%

Group L

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	England ↓0.4	88%	65%
2	Croatia ↓0.5	63%	23%
3	Ghana ↑0.7	28%	8%
4	Panama ↑0.2	21%	5%

小组赛 72 场完整预测

含 xG / 半场比分 / 全场比分 / 黄红牌 / 角球 / 犯规 / 射门(射正) / 控球率 / 越位 · 已赛以CF标记 · 绿色边框=确认

组	日期	主队	客队	xG	HT	FT	黄牌	红牌	角球	犯规	射门(射正)	控球	越位
A	2026-06-12	Mexico	South Korea	2.16-1.32	2-1	4-1	1+1	0+0	11	26	28(10)	52.8-47.2	3
A	2026-06-12	South Africa	Czech Republic	1.39-1.79	2-1	2-2	1+1	0+0	11	24	33(11)	48.7-51.3	3
A	2026-06-18	Mexico	Czech Republic	2.04-1.19	2-1	4-2	3+2	0+0	8	22	30(11)	56.2-43.8	8
A	2026-06-18	South Korea	South Africa	2.02-1.43	1-1	2-3	4+5	0+0	16	33	28(10)	54.7-45.3	3
A	2026-06-24	Mexico	South Africa	2.11-1.05	CF	2-0	2+2	0+0	17	24	19(7)	57.5-42.5	1
A	2026-06-24	South Korea	Czech Republic	1.84-1.68	CF	2-1	2+2	0+0	15	24	29(10)	53.4-46.6	1
B	2026-06-12	Switzerland	Canada	1.72-1.31	0-1	0-2	2+2	0+0	7	26	19(7)	54.2-45.8	2
B	2026-06-12	Qatar	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.43-1.21	1-0	1-1	4+4	0+0	15	26	20(7)	50.9-49.1	2
B	2026-06-18	Switzerland	Bosnia and Herzegovina	2.05-1.47	1-0	2-2	3+3	0+0	9	29	27(9)	56.5-43.5	3
B	2026-06-18	Canada	Qatar	1.27-1.12	0-1	0-1	2+2	0+0	5	18	31(11)	51.4-48.6	5
B	2026-06-24	Switzerland	Qatar	1.49-1.27	CF	1-1	2+2	0+0	6	15	29(10)	55.6-44.4	4
B	2026-06-24	Canada	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.73-1.29	CF	1-1	2+3	0+0	8	28	26(9)	52.4-47.6	1
C	2026-06-12	Brazil	Morocco	2.17-1.91	CF	1-1	1+2	0+0	12	28	25(9)	49.6-50.4	1
C	2026-06-12	Scotland	Haiti	1.81-1.18	CF	1-0	2+3	0+0	3	20	32(11)	56.3-43.7	2
C	2026-06-18	Brazil	Scotland	2.40-1.31	2-0	3-1	2+1	0+0	14	24	32(12)	56.4-43.6	1
C	2026-06-18	Morocco	Haiti	2.64-1.07	0-0	0-0	0+1	0+0	13	31	23(9)	63.2-36.8	3
C	2026-06-24	Brazil	Haiti	2.72-0.97	0-0	1-4	1+2	0+0	11	31	28(9)	62.7-37.3	4
C	2026-06-24	Morocco	Scotland	2.33-1.44	2-3	3-3	2+1	0+0	9	22	30(11)	56.8-43.2	5
D	2026-06-12	USA	Paraguay	2.13-0.91	CF	4-1	4+4	0+0	13	22	22(7)	55.1-44.9	4
D	2026-06-12	Australia	Turkey	1.13-1.94	CF	2-0	1+1	0+0	18	23	35(13)	51.2-48.8	4
D	2026-06-18	USA	Australia	2.08-1.25	0-4	5-4	2+2	0+0	6	25	21(7)	52.6-47.4	6
D	2026-06-18	Paraguay	Turkey	0.82-1.97	0-0	1-0	4+4	0+0	11	26	26(9)	48.7-51.3	2
D	2026-06-24	USA	Turkey	1.40-1.39	0-0	0-0	1+2	0+0	13	27	19(7)	53.8-46.2	3
D	2026-06-24	Paraguay	Australia	1.25-1.74	0-0	0-0	1+1	0+0	16	25	21(8)	47.6-52.4	6
E	2026-06-12	Germany	Ecuador	2.51-1.19	1-1	1-1	0+1	0+0	6	22	27(10)	56.4-43.6	3
E	2026-06-12	Ivory Coast	Curaçao	2.23-1.31	0-0	2-1	2+3	0+0	9	30	19(7)	54.2-45.8	1
E	2026-06-18	Germany	Ivory Coast	2.64-1.58	0-0	1-1	2+3	1+0	9	24	22(8)	57.3-42.7	2
E	2026-06-18	Ecuador	Curaçao	1.68-1.24	2-1	4-2	2+2	0+0	7	32	24(9)	55.2-44.8	3
E	2026-06-24	Germany	Curaçao	3.17-1.11	2-0	3-1	1+1	0+0	11	30	27(10)	61.6-38.4	2
E	2026-06-24	Ecuador	Ivory Coast	1.40-1.77	0-4	2-5	4+4	0+0	8	31	22(8)	50.9-49.1	3
F	2026-06-12	Netherlands	Japan	2.44-1.73	3-1	4-3	2+1	0+0	8	14	26(9)	52.8-47.2	1
F	2026-06-12	Sweden	Tunisia	1.17-1.14	0-1	1-1	0+1	0+0	9	22	20(7)	49.5-50.5	4
F	2026-06-18	Netherlands	Sweden	1.66-0.95	0-1	0-2	0+1	0+1	16	13	13(4)	58.7-41.3	2
F	2026-06-18	Japan	Tunisia	2.13-1.68	0-1	1-1	2+3	0+0	9	23	21(8)	55.4-44.6	2
F	2026-06-24	Netherlands	Tunisia	2.70-1.50	0-0	1-0	3+4	1+0	8	34	36(13)	58.3-41.7	2
F	2026-06-24	Japan	Sweden	1.31-1.06	0-1	1-2	2+2	0+0	10	20	24(9)	55.9-44.1	4
G	2026-06-12	Belgium	Egypt	2.40-1.63	0-1	1-1	2+2	0+0	11	23	28(10)	57.6-42.4	1
G	2026-06-12	Iran	New Zealand	2.22-1.25	1-1	4-3	3+3	0+0	8	24	18(6)	57.5-42.5	4
G	2026-06-18	Belgium	Iran	2.34-1.54	3-0	4-0	2+2	0+0	9	26	31(11)	55.0-45.0	0
G	2026-06-18	Egypt	New Zealand	2.34-1.29	2-2	2-3	2+1	0+1	12	29	22(7)	54.8-45.2	3
G	2026-06-24	Belgium	New Zealand	3.00-1.12	0-1	3-1	2+2	0+0	8	22	34(12)	62.4-37.6	4
G	2026-06-24	Egypt	Iran	1.82-1.78	2-2	3-4	3+2	0+0	11	29	24(9)	47.3-52.7	4
H	2026-06-12	Spain	Cape Verde	3.36-1.33	4-0	6-2	2+2	0+0	7	29	33(12)	66.4-33.6	4
H	2026-06-12	Uruguay	Saudi Arabia	2.17-0.98	2-1	2-1	1+0	0+0	10	23	20(7)	57.3-42.7	4
H	2026-06-18	Spain	Saudi Arabia	3.35-0.94	0-0	1-0	1+2	0+0	10	21	26(9)	66.1-33.9	2
H	2026-06-18	Uruguay	Cape Verde	2.17-1.38	0-0	4-0	1+1	0+0	4	28	24(8)	57.6-42.4	3
H	2026-06-24	Spain	Uruguay	2.79-1.73	1-1	2-1	2+3	0+0	9	23	28(10)	58.9-41.1	3
H	2026-06-24	Cape Verde	Saudi Arabia	1.66-1.18	0-0	1-1	0+1	0+0	8	31	36(13)	49.7-50.3	0
I	2026-06-12	France	Senegal	2.86-1.73	1-0	6-0	2+2	0+0	5	26	30(11)	56.2-43.8	3
I	2026-06-12	Norway	Iraq	2.14-1.06	1-1	2-2	3+3	0+0	7	22	16(5)	53.6-46.4	2
I	2026-06-18	France	Norway	2.83-1.67	2-1	4-2	2+2	0+0	5	33	33(12)	60.2-39.8	2
I	2026-06-18	Senegal	Iraq	2.22-1.08	0-0	0-1	2+1	0+0	7	31	23(8)	57.7-42.3	2
I	2026-06-24	France	Iraq	3.24-0.95	1-0	5-0	3+4	0+0	13	26	28(10)	63.8-36.2	3
I	2026-06-24	Senegal	Norway	1.94-1.89	1-1	1-2	5+4	0+0	6	30	39(14)	54.1-45.9	7
J	2026-06-12	Argentina	Austria	2.72-1.67	2-0	4-3	2+2	0+0	7	24	22(8)	60.4-39.6	1
J	2026-06-12	Algeria	Jordan	2.06-1.37	1-1	4-1	2+1	0+0	4	34	19(6)	53.6-46.4	1
J	2026-06-18	Argentina	Algeria	2.93-1.49	0-0	2-2	3+3	0+0	11	35	30(11)	61.7-38.3	1
J	2026-06-18	Austria	Jordan	2.30-1.28	1-0	3-1	0+0	0+0	10	21	29(11)	54.9-45.1	1
J	2026-06-24	Argentina	Jordan	3.35-1.14	1-1	1-1	2+2	0+0	10	26	34(12)	65.3-34.7	2
J	2026-06-24	Austria	Algeria	2.01-1.67	0-0	1-1	2+2	0+0	7	32	23(8)	51.3-48.7	0
K	2026-06-12	Portugal	Colombia	2.12-1.56	1-1	4-1	2+2	0+0	9	29	21(8)	53.3-46.7	5
K	2026-06-12	Uzbekistan	DR Congo	1.69-1.69	1-0	1-1	1+1	0+0	10	22	24(9)	50.8-49.2	1
K	2026-06-18	Portugal	Uzbekistan	2.82-1.24	1-1	5-2	2+2	0+0	10	27	29(11)	60.1-39.9	7
K	2026-06-18	Colombia	DR Congo	2.13-1.27	1-1	2-1	1+1	0+0	9	34	34(12)	57.5-42.5	1
K	2026-06-24	Portugal	DR Congo	2.85-1.25	1-2	2-2	1+2	0+0	16	25	25(9)	60.8-39.2	2
K	2026-06-24	Colombia	Uzbekistan	2.11-1.25	1-0	2-0	2+2	0+0	7	24	31(11)	56.8-43.2	2
L	2026-06-12	England	Croatia	2.70-1.80	1-2	3-2	3+4	0+0	14	19	28(10)	52.8-47.2	4
L	2026-06-12	Ghana	Panama	1.81-1.60	1-0	1-2	1+1	0+0	4	33	20(8)	47.3-52.7	2
L	2026-06-18	England	Ghana	3.10-1.36	1-0	3-1	2+2	0+0	12	18	32(11)	62.8-37.2	1
L	2026-06-18	Croatia	Panama	2.39-1.39	1-0	2-0	1+0	0+0	13	25	29(11)	57.3-42.7	2
L	2026-06-24	England	Panama	3.22-1.25	2-2	4-2	1+2	0+0	15	17	37(13)	60.1-39.9	2
L	2026-06-24	Croatia	Ghana	2.30-1.52	1-0	2-1	4+3	0+0	10	23	26(10)	60.0-40.0	2

模型说明 · 数据来源 · 更新机制

模型架构: ELO评分系统 (FIFA 2026-06-11 排名转换) + Poisson进球分布模型 + 蒙特卡洛模拟 (10,000 次完整赛会)

动态更新: 每场已赛结果自动纳入ELO系统 (K=60 世界杯权重)。confirmed_results.py 更新后，build.py 自动重建报告。

比分生成: Poisson分布从期望进球 (xG) 抽样。上半场占全场进球的43%（基于2022世界杯实际数据）。卡牌/角球/犯规/控球基于球队风格系数+ELO差。

2022回测: 小组头名预测准确率 48%（随机基准25%），前二准确率待验证。

数据来源: Wikipedia 2026 FIFA World Cup (资格赛结果+抽签), FIFA Mens Ranking (2026-06-11), Transfermarkt (身价参考), 多方博彩平台赔率共识。

局限: 未纳入实时伤病/天气/裁判指派/更衣室动态等。模型输出为概率分布，单场比赛高度不确定。

自动部署: GitHub Actions 每30分钟运行 build.py → 更新 report_2026.html → Cloudflare Pages 自动部署。上次构建: 2026-07-01 12:29 UTC

免责: 仅供足球数据研究参考，不构成任何博彩建议。预测与实际结果可能存在显著偏差。