2026 FIFA World Cup · 终极预测报告

ELO + Poisson + 12 因子综合模型 · 10,000 次蒙特卡洛模拟 · 2026-07-04 20:47 UTC

模型冠军

Spain

概率 12.7%

2022回测准确率

48%

小组头名预测 (随机25%)

已赛确认

8 / 80

实时ELO更新

数据源

FIFA + Wiki

ELO · Poisson · MC

实时比分 · Live Scoreboard

自动刷新 · 每1秒 (实时)

当前无进行中比赛

已赛结果确认

8场小组赛已完赛。ELO评分已自动更新 (K=60 世界杯权重)。绿色左侧边框 = 已赛确认

组	主队	比分	客队	ELO变化
A	Mexico	2-0	South Africa	+11 / -11
A	South Korea	2-1	Czech Republic	+22 / -22
B	Canada	1-1	Bosnia and Herzegovina	-9 / +9
B	Qatar	1-1	Switzerland	+19 / -19
C	Brazil	1-1	Morocco	+5 / -5
C	Haiti	0-1	Scotland	-16 / +16
D	USA	4-1	Paraguay	+15 / -15
D	Australia	2-0	Turkey	+30 / -30

夺冠概率 Top 20（蒙特卡洛 10,000 次模拟）

ELO评分 + Poisson进球模型 · 已赛ELO已更新 · 含加时+点球决胜 · 数据截至 2026-07-04 20:47 UTC

#	球队	夺冠	概率条	小组出线	小组第1	级别	ELO
1	Spain	12.7% ↑0.8	12.7%	91.5% ↓0.8	71.2%	T1	2235
2	France	11.6% ↑0.5	11.6%	88.0%	63.8%	T1	2209
3	Brazil	10.1% ↓0.8	10.1%	78.6% ↑0.9	43.7%	T1	2035
4	England	9.1% ↑0.2	9.1%	88.9% ↑0.1	64.8%	T1	2180
5	Argentina	9.0% ↓0.6	9.0%	88.3% ↓0.2	66.3%	T1	2219
6	Germany	7.6% ↑0.2	7.6%	88.1% ↓0.9	66.3%	T1	2031
7	Netherlands	6.8% ↑0.2	6.8%	77.3% ↓0.2	52.2%	T1	2069
8	Morocco	6.6% ↑0.1	6.6%	73.6% ↑0.7	35.9%	T1	2080
9	Portugal	4.6% ↓0.3	4.6%	84.7% ↑0.4	58.0%	T1	2077
10	Turkey	3.5% ↓0.2	3.5%	34.9% ↓0.2	7.9%	T2	1754
11	Belgium	3.0% ↓0.3	3.0%	81.6% ↑0.7	54.6%	T1	2042
12	Switzerland	1.5% ↑0.4	1.5%	63.5% ↓1.1	36.2%	T2	1906
13	USA	1.3% ↓0.2	1.3%	79.2%	51.9%	T2	1928
14	Croatia	1.2% ↑0.2	1.2%	63.2% ↓0.4	23.6%	T2	2024
15	Uruguay	1.1% ↑0.1	1.1%	65.3% ↓1.1	20.8%	T1	1932
16	Mexico	1.0% ↓0.1	1.0%	81.8% ↓0.6	51.6%	T2	1945
17	Japan	1.0%	1.0%	52.8% ↑1.5	22.9%	T2	1940
18	Senegal	0.8% ↓0.1	0.8%	52.0% ↑0.9	17.9%	T2	1972
19	Colombia	0.8%	0.8%	65.7% ↑0.5	28.2%	T2	1966
20	Norway	0.8% ↓0.2	0.8%	49.1% ↓0.7	16.3%	T2	1802

12 因子场外因素综合（场外维度）

#	因子	权重	主要受益者	主要受损者	影响描述
1	定位球威胁	5%	英格兰/德国/荷兰	西班牙/日本	英格兰定位球转化28%碾压级
2	点球大战历史	3%	德国/阿根廷/克罗地亚	英格兰/西班牙/荷兰	英格兰1-4(20%) VS 德国5-1(83%)
3	高原效应	3%	墨西哥	南非/捷克	Azteca 2250m氧气少23%
4	休息日不对称	4%	G/H/I组	J/K/L组	J/K/L组R32前仅2天恢复
5	球迷基数	3%	墨西哥/美国	亚洲/非洲	3700万墨裔在美，半个主场
6	黄牌/红牌风险	2%	—	墨西哥	墨西哥首场3红，淘汰赛隐患
7	板凳深度	5%	法国/英格兰/西班牙	挪威/摩洛哥	加时赛后差距指数级放大
8	Plan B战术	3%	法国/阿根廷	西班牙/摩洛哥	西班牙只会Tiki-taka，控不住就崩
9	VAR点球倾向	2%	英格兰/阿根廷	—	凯恩92%点球率=基本每场1球
10	球场宽度	1%	巴西(边锋)	—	AT&T 72m极宽→巴西边锋起飞
11	疲劳指数	3%	阿根廷(梅西仅2800min)	英格兰(贝林4800+)	贝林厄姆赛季近5000分钟→决赛堪忧
12	历史克制关系	2%	法国(对巴西)	巴西(对法国)	巴西"恐法症"1998/2006连败

夺冠赔率共识（多平台综合）

来源：Bet365 / William Hill / Pinnacle / Betfair / OddsPortal — 各平台权重不超过12%

排名	球队	综合赔率	隐含概率	趋势
1	西班牙	5.50	18.2%	↑
2	法国	5.75	17.4%	→
3	阿根廷	6.50	15.4%	→
4	英格兰	7.00	14.3%	→
5	巴西	7.50	13.3%	↓
6	葡萄牙	11.00	9.1%	→
7	德国	12.00	8.3%	→
8	荷兰	17.00	5.9%	→
9	摩洛哥	21.00	4.8%	↑
10	比利时	26.00	3.8%	↓

多源数据聚合 · 综合信心指数

6大数据源 · 每源权重≤12% · 赔率30% + 社媒25% + 球迷社区25% + 专家20% · 数据截至 2026-07-04 20:47 UTC

#	球队	综合指数	赔率信心	社媒情绪	球迷热度	专家评级	趋势
1	Argentina	0.801 ↑0.293	0.81	0.75	0.88	0.75	↑
2	France	0.799 ↑0.352	0.90	0.68	0.75	0.85	→
3	Spain	0.791 ↑0.648	0.76	0.72	0.81	0.90	↑
4	England	0.659 ↓0.396	0.59	0.65	0.76	0.65	→
5	Brazil	0.625 ↓0.547	0.54	0.70	0.71	0.55	↓
6	Portugal	0.549 ↑0.225	0.49	0.62	0.67	0.40	→
7	Germany	0.370 ↑0.091	0.00	0.58	0.62	0.35	↑
8	Morocco	0.354 ↓0.739	0.04	0.60	0.65	0.15	↑
9	Netherlands	0.331 ↓0.306	0.00	0.55	0.58	0.25	→
10	Mexico	0.318 ↓0.172	0.04	0.55	0.63	0.05	→
11	USA	0.309 ↓1.241	0.00	0.52	0.68	0.05	↑
12	Japan	0.282 ↓0.158	0.00	0.50	0.59	0.05	→
13	Colombia	0.272	0.06	0.48	0.50	0.05	→
14	Uruguay	0.269	0.00	0.50	0.54	0.05	→
15	South Korea	0.267 ↓0.015	0.00	0.48	0.55	0.05	↑
16	Belgium	0.261 ↑0.118	0.00	0.48	0.48	0.10	↓
17	Egypt	0.260	0.00	0.50	0.50	0.05	→
18	Paraguay	0.260 ↓0.483	0.00	0.50	0.50	0.05	→
19	Senegal	0.240 ↑0.041	0.00	0.42	0.50	0.05	→
20	Switzerland	0.240 ↓0.361	0.00	0.42	0.50	0.05	→

数据源: Bet365/William Hill/Pinnacle/Betfair | Twitter/Reddit/Weibo/虎扑/懂球帝 | BBC/Guardian/ESPN/L'Equipe/Gazzetta/The Athletic/Kicker/Marca

预测夺冠路径（蒙特卡洛最高概率路径）

基于 10,000 次蒙特卡洛模拟的最可能淘汰赛路径。金色 = 胜者晋级，数字 = 晋级概率。

R32

Mexico68%

Morocco32%

Switzerland37%

Australia63%

Brazil16%

Ivory Coast84%

USA52%

Japan48%

Germany24%

South Korea76%

Netherlands10%

Qatar90%

Belgium40%

Senegal60%

Spain8%

Austria92%

France20%

Colombia80%

Argentina25%

Croatia75%

Portugal14%

Egypt86%

England19%

Uruguay81%

→

R16

Morocco27%

Switzerland73%

Brazil37%

Japan63%

Germany55%

Netherlands45%

Belgium75%

Spain25%

France52%

Argentina48%

Portugal64%

England36%

→

Morocco44%

Brazil56%

Netherlands50%

Spain48%

Argentina52%

England50%

→

Morocco48%

Netherlands52%

Spain42%

England58%

→

FINAL

Morocco71%

Spain29%

→

CHAMPION

Spain

淘汰赛预测 (R32 → 冠军)

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的每轮对阵预测。绿色 = 主队胜率，蓝色 = 客队胜率。🏆 = 预测晋级。

轮次	主队	主胜概率		客胜概率	客队
R32	Mexico	68%	vs	32%	Morocco 🏆
R32	Switzerland 🏆	37%	vs	63%	Australia
R32	Brazil 🏆	16%	vs	84%	Ivory Coast
R32	USA	52%	vs	48%	Japan 🏆
R32	Germany 🏆	24%	vs	76%	South Korea
R32	Netherlands 🏆	10%	vs	90%	Qatar
R32	Belgium 🏆	40%	vs	60%	Senegal
R32	Spain 🏆	8%	vs	92%	Austria
R32	France 🏆	20%	vs	80%	Colombia
R32	Argentina 🏆	25%	vs	75%	Croatia
R32	Portugal 🏆	14%	vs	86%	Egypt
R32	England 🏆	19%	vs	81%	Uruguay
R16	Morocco 🏆	27%	vs	73%	Switzerland
R16	Brazil 🏆	37%	vs	63%	Japan
R16	Germany	55%	vs	45%	Netherlands 🏆
R16	Belgium	75%	vs	25%	Spain 🏆
R16	France	52%	vs	48%	Argentina 🏆
R16	Portugal	64%	vs	36%	England 🏆
QF	Morocco 🏆	44%	vs	56%	Brazil
QF	Netherlands 🏆	50%	vs	50%	Netherlands 🏆
QF	Spain 🏆	48%	vs	52%	Argentina
QF	England 🏆	50%	vs	50%	England 🏆
SF	Morocco 🏆	48%	vs	52%	Netherlands
SF	Spain 🏆	42%	vs	58%	England

小组出线概率一览

基于蒙特卡洛 10,000 次模拟。前两名直接晋级，最佳8个第3名晋级。金色 = 小组头名热门，银灰 = 小组第二热门。

Group A

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Mexico ↓0.6	82%	52%
2	South Korea ↑0.3	78%	40%
3	Czech Republic ↑0.6	26%	6%
4	South Africa ↓0.3	13%	2%

Group B

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Switzerland ↓1.1	64%	36%
2	Qatar ↓0.2	54%	25%
3	Canada ↑0.7	42%	20%
4	Bosnia and Herzegovina ↑0.6	40%	19%

Group C

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Brazil ↑0.9	79%	44%
2	Morocco ↑0.7	74%	36%
3	Scotland ↓1.2	45%	19%
4	Haiti ↓0.4	3%	1%

Group D

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	USA	79%	52%
2	Australia	79%	39%
3	Turkey ↓0.2	35%	8%
4	Paraguay ↑0.3	7%	1%

Group E

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Germany ↓0.9	88%	66%
2	Ivory Coast ↓1.1	56%	19%
3	Ecuador ↑0.9	36%	10%
4	Curaçao ↑1.1	19%	4%

Group F

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Netherlands ↓0.2	77%	52%
2	Japan ↑1.5	53%	23%
3	Sweden ↓1.0	37%	12%
4	Tunisia ↓0.3	33%	12%

Group G

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Belgium ↑0.7	82%	55%
2	Egypt ↓0.1	53%	22%
3	Iran ↓1.1	51%	20%
4	New Zealand ↑0.4	14%	3%

Group H

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Spain ↓0.8	92%	71%
2	Uruguay ↓1.1	65%	21%
3	Cape Verde ↑1.1	29%	6%
4	Saudi Arabia ↑0.8	14%	2%

Group I

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	France	88%	64%
2	Senegal ↑0.9	52%	18%
3	Norway ↓0.7	49%	16%
4	Iraq ↓0.2	11%	2%

Group J

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Argentina ↓0.2	88%	66%
2	Austria	56%	19%
3	Algeria ↑0.2	40%	12%
4	Jordan	16%	3%

Group K

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Portugal ↑0.4	85%	58%
2	Colombia ↑0.5	66%	28%
3	Uzbekistan ↓0.2	25%	7%
4	DR Congo ↓0.8	25%	7%

Group L

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	England ↑0.1	89%	65%
2	Croatia ↓0.4	63%	24%
3	Ghana ↓0.2	27%	7%
4	Panama ↑0.6	21%	5%

小组赛 72 场完整预测

含 xG / 半场比分 / 全场比分 / 黄红牌 / 角球 / 犯规 / 射门(射正) / 控球率 / 越位 · 已赛以CF标记 · 绿色边框=确认

组	日期	主队	客队	xG	HT	FT	黄牌	红牌	角球	犯规	射门(射正)	控球	越位
A	2026-06-12	Mexico	South Korea	2.16-1.32	0-0	1-1	2+1	1+0	6	24	27(10)	52.8-47.2	6
A	2026-06-12	South Africa	Czech Republic	1.39-1.79	1-0	2-1	3+3	0+0	12	30	36(13)	48.7-51.3	3
A	2026-06-18	Mexico	Czech Republic	2.04-1.19	0-0	0-0	3+2	0+0	12	20	24(8)	56.2-43.8	4
A	2026-06-18	South Korea	South Africa	2.02-1.43	0-0	2-0	2+3	0+0	11	33	21(7)	54.7-45.3	3
A	2026-06-24	Mexico	South Africa	2.11-1.05	CF	2-0	1+1	0+0	11	32	20(7)	57.5-42.5	1
A	2026-06-24	South Korea	Czech Republic	1.84-1.68	CF	2-1	1+0	0+0	6	18	21(8)	53.4-46.6	3
B	2026-06-12	Switzerland	Canada	1.72-1.31	1-0	3-1	3+3	0+0	6	20	20(7)	54.2-45.8	6
B	2026-06-12	Qatar	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.43-1.21	2-0	4-0	2+3	0+1	9	34	23(8)	50.9-49.1	6
B	2026-06-18	Switzerland	Bosnia and Herzegovina	2.05-1.47	0-1	0-2	1+2	0+0	5	22	21(8)	56.5-43.5	2
B	2026-06-18	Canada	Qatar	1.27-1.12	0-0	2-0	2+2	0+0	10	23	15(6)	51.4-48.6	2
B	2026-06-24	Switzerland	Qatar	1.49-1.27	CF	1-1	2+2	0+0	3	31	20(7)	55.6-44.4	2
B	2026-06-24	Canada	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.73-1.29	CF	1-1	2+2	0+0	7	24	28(10)	52.4-47.6	2
C	2026-06-12	Brazil	Morocco	2.19-1.91	CF	1-1	3+3	0+0	7	23	30(10)	50.4-49.6	2
C	2026-06-12	Scotland	Haiti	1.81-1.18	CF	1-0	1+1	0+0	12	31	15(5)	56.4-43.6	1
C	2026-06-18	Brazil	Scotland	2.42-1.31	0-0	0-2	1+1	0+0	12	30	25(9)	57.2-42.8	2
C	2026-06-18	Morocco	Haiti	2.64-1.07	1-0	2-2	2+3	0+0	4	25	29(10)	63.2-36.8	1
C	2026-06-24	Brazil	Haiti	2.75-0.97	0-0	0-1	4+4	0+0	8	20	28(9)	63.6-36.4	0
C	2026-06-24	Morocco	Scotland	2.33-1.44	0-1	0-2	3+2	0+0	13	33	31(11)	56.9-43.1	2
D	2026-06-12	USA	Paraguay	2.14-0.91	CF	4-1	1+1	0+0	11	27	21(7)	55.6-44.4	3
D	2026-06-12	Australia	Turkey	1.13-1.94	CF	2-0	3+4	0+0	14	33	25(9)	51.2-48.8	1
D	2026-06-18	USA	Australia	2.09-1.25	3-0	5-1	3+3	0+0	14	30	22(8)	53.2-46.8	3
D	2026-06-18	Paraguay	Turkey	0.82-1.97	0-1	0-1	2+3	0+0	18	35	23(8)	48.8-51.2	5
D	2026-06-24	USA	Turkey	1.41-1.39	3-0	4-0	1+2	0+0	15	41	16(6)	54.4-45.6	4
D	2026-06-24	Paraguay	Australia	1.25-1.74	0-0	0-2	3+2	0+0	8	25	24(9)	47.6-52.4	2
E	2026-06-12	Germany	Ecuador	2.54-1.19	0-1	1-2	1+1	0+0	10	33	34(12)	57.6-42.4	7
E	2026-06-12	Ivory Coast	Curaçao	2.23-1.31	0-0	1-0	0+0	0+0	12	22	29(10)	54.2-45.8	3
E	2026-06-18	Germany	Ivory Coast	2.67-1.58	3-1	3-2	2+3	0+0	8	30	29(10)	58.6-41.4	6
E	2026-06-18	Ecuador	Curaçao	1.68-1.24	0-0	2-0	2+1	0+0	5	24	21(7)	55.3-44.7	5
E	2026-06-24	Germany	Curaçao	3.21-1.11	1-0	6-1	2+3	0+0	13	20	21(7)	62.9-37.1	0
E	2026-06-24	Ecuador	Ivory Coast	1.40-1.77	0-0	0-0	4+3	0+0	11	30	22(8)	51.1-48.9	1
F	2026-06-12	Netherlands	Japan	2.46-1.73	1-0	2-0	1+1	0+1	7	20	25(9)	53.5-46.5	2
F	2026-06-12	Sweden	Tunisia	1.17-1.14	0-0	0-0	2+3	0+0	8	22	16(5)	49.6-50.4	4
F	2026-06-18	Netherlands	Sweden	1.67-0.95	0-0	0-0	4+3	0+0	6	23	21(8)	59.3-40.7	2
F	2026-06-18	Japan	Tunisia	2.13-1.68	0-0	2-0	1+1	0+1	9	26	20(8)	55.4-44.6	5
F	2026-06-24	Netherlands	Tunisia	2.72-1.50	4-0	5-3	2+3	0+0	5	22	37(13)	58.9-41.1	5
F	2026-06-24	Japan	Sweden	1.31-1.06	1-1	1-2	1+1	1+0	15	20	19(7)	55.8-44.2	5
G	2026-06-12	Belgium	Egypt	2.40-1.63	3-1	5-1	2+3	0+0	11	28	26(9)	57.6-42.4	6
G	2026-06-12	Iran	New Zealand	2.22-1.25	2-0	4-2	4+3	0+0	9	26	25(9)	57.5-42.5	5
G	2026-06-18	Belgium	Iran	2.34-1.54	2-1	3-5	0+0	0+0	6	26	25(9)	55.0-45.0	2
G	2026-06-18	Egypt	New Zealand	2.34-1.29	1-1	2-1	2+1	0+0	8	24	20(7)	54.8-45.2	4
G	2026-06-24	Belgium	New Zealand	3.00-1.12	2-1	5-2	1+1	0+0	11	21	27(10)	62.4-37.6	1
G	2026-06-24	Egypt	Iran	1.82-1.78	0-1	0-2	2+2	0+0	6	21	26(9)	47.3-52.7	1
H	2026-06-12	Spain	Cape Verde	3.38-1.33	4-1	7-1	2+2	0+0	16	26	31(11)	66.9-33.1	1
H	2026-06-12	Uruguay	Saudi Arabia	2.17-0.98	4-0	5-0	3+2	0+0	17	32	19(7)	57.3-42.7	3
H	2026-06-18	Spain	Saudi Arabia	3.37-0.94	1-0	3-0	1+2	0+0	9	26	31(11)	66.6-33.4	4
H	2026-06-18	Uruguay	Cape Verde	2.17-1.38	1-1	2-3	5+4	0+0	13	28	19(6)	57.6-42.4	3
H	2026-06-24	Spain	Uruguay	2.80-1.73	2-3	2-3	1+2	0+0	10	27	25(9)	59.3-40.7	3
H	2026-06-24	Cape Verde	Saudi Arabia	1.66-1.18	2-1	3-1	4+4	0+0	2	11	22(7)	49.7-50.3	0
I	2026-06-12	France	Senegal	2.87-1.73	1-0	1-0	3+3	0+0	16	24	27(9)	56.4-43.6	4
I	2026-06-12	Norway	Iraq	2.14-1.06	0-0	0-2	2+2	0+0	10	15	25(9)	53.7-46.3	2
I	2026-06-18	France	Norway	2.84-1.67	0-1	1-4	1+1	0+0	11	23	37(13)	60.4-39.6	4
I	2026-06-18	Senegal	Iraq	2.22-1.08	1-0	3-0	2+1	0+0	10	23	32(11)	57.7-42.3	3
I	2026-06-24	France	Iraq	3.25-0.95	2-1	5-1	0+1	0+1	11	29	32(11)	64.1-35.9	2
I	2026-06-24	Senegal	Norway	1.94-1.89	1-2	1-3	2+2	0+0	13	24	28(10)	54.0-46.0	2
J	2026-06-12	Argentina	Austria	2.74-1.67	2-0	3-1	2+1	0+0	11	26	36(12)	61.2-38.8	2
J	2026-06-12	Algeria	Jordan	2.06-1.37	1-1	1-2	2+1	0+0	10	24	23(8)	53.6-46.4	5
J	2026-06-18	Argentina	Algeria	2.95-1.49	1-1	6-1	3+3	0+0	13	19	28(10)	62.4-37.6	3
J	2026-06-18	Austria	Jordan	2.30-1.28	2-0	3-0	1+1	0+0	6	22	30(11)	54.9-45.1	4
J	2026-06-24	Argentina	Jordan	3.37-1.14	1-1	7-1	2+2	0+0	8	28	35(12)	66.1-33.9	1
J	2026-06-24	Austria	Algeria	2.01-1.67	0-1	1-1	2+3	0+0	7	17	20(7)	51.3-48.7	5
K	2026-06-12	Portugal	Colombia	2.12-1.56	2-0	2-0	1+2	0+0	11	29	26(9)	53.3-46.7	2
K	2026-06-12	Uzbekistan	DR Congo	1.69-1.69	0-0	1-1	3+4	0+0	11	22	28(10)	50.8-49.2	2
K	2026-06-18	Portugal	Uzbekistan	2.82-1.24	1-0	1-2	2+1	0+0	7	26	17(6)	60.1-39.9	2
K	2026-06-18	Colombia	DR Congo	2.13-1.27	2-0	3-2	4+3	0+0	11	25	20(7)	57.5-42.5	0
K	2026-06-24	Portugal	DR Congo	2.85-1.25	1-1	4-1	2+2	0+0	10	25	28(10)	60.8-39.2	5
K	2026-06-24	Colombia	Uzbekistan	2.11-1.25	1-0	2-1	1+1	0+0	9	19	30(11)	56.8-43.2	4
L	2026-06-12	England	Croatia	2.74-1.80	0-0	0-1	1+2	0+0	16	21	39(14)	54.4-45.6	2
L	2026-06-12	Ghana	Panama	1.81-1.60	0-1	2-1	2+2	0+0	8	29	19(6)	47.3-52.7	2
L	2026-06-18	England	Ghana	3.15-1.36	3-0	5-0	2+3	0+0	15	29	31(11)	64.4-35.6	5
L	2026-06-18	Croatia	Panama	2.39-1.39	1-0	2-0	1+1	0+0	9	16	39(14)	57.3-42.7	1
L	2026-06-24	England	Panama	3.27-1.25	1-0	3-0	1+2	0+0	16	27	27(10)	61.7-38.3	0
L	2026-06-24	Croatia	Ghana	2.30-1.52	0-0	0-0	0+1	0+0	14	24	23(8)	60.0-40.0	5

模型说明 · 数据来源 · 更新机制

模型架构: ELO评分系统 (FIFA 2026-06-11 排名转换) + Poisson进球分布模型 + 蒙特卡洛模拟 (10,000 次完整赛会)

动态更新: 每场已赛结果自动纳入ELO系统 (K=60 世界杯权重)。confirmed_results.py 更新后，build.py 自动重建报告。

比分生成: Poisson分布从期望进球 (xG) 抽样。上半场占全场进球的43%（基于2022世界杯实际数据）。卡牌/角球/犯规/控球基于球队风格系数+ELO差。

2022回测: 小组头名预测准确率 48%（随机基准25%），前二准确率待验证。

数据来源: Wikipedia 2026 FIFA World Cup (资格赛结果+抽签), FIFA Mens Ranking (2026-06-11), Transfermarkt (身价参考), 多方博彩平台赔率共识。

局限: 未纳入实时伤病/天气/裁判指派/更衣室动态等。模型输出为概率分布，单场比赛高度不确定。

自动部署: GitHub Actions 每30分钟运行 build.py → 更新 report_2026.html → Cloudflare Pages 自动部署。上次构建: 2026-07-04 20:47 UTC

免责: 仅供足球数据研究参考，不构成任何博彩建议。预测与实际结果可能存在显著偏差。