2026 FIFA World Cup · 终极预测报告

ELO + Poisson + 12 因子综合模型 · 10,000 次蒙特卡洛模拟 · 2026-06-14 20:49 UTC
模型冠军
Spain
概率 12.4%
2022回测准确率
48%
小组头名预测 (随机25%)
已赛确认
8 / 80
实时ELO更新
数据源
FIFA + Wiki
ELO · Poisson · MC

实时比分 · Live Scoreboard

自动刷新 · 每1秒 (实时)
当前无进行中比赛

已赛结果确认

8场小组赛已完赛。ELO评分已自动更新 (K=60 世界杯权重)。绿色左侧边框 = 已赛确认

主队比分客队ELO变化
AMexico2-0South Africa+11 / -11
ASouth Korea2-1Czech Republic+22 / -22
BCanada1-1Bosnia and Herzegovina-9 / +9
BQatar1-1Switzerland+19 / -19
CBrazil1-1Morocco+5 / -5
CHaiti0-1Scotland-16 / +16
DUSA4-1Paraguay+15 / -15
DAustralia2-0Turkey+30 / -30

夺冠概率 Top 20(蒙特卡洛 10,000 次模拟)

ELO评分 + Poisson进球模型 · 已赛ELO已更新 · 含加时+点球决胜 · 数据截至 2026-06-14 20:49 UTC

#球队夺冠概率条小组出线小组第1级别ELO
1Spain12.4% ↑0.5
12.4%
92.2% ↓0.170.1%T12235
2France11.3% ↑0.1
11.3%
87.1% ↓0.863.7%T12209
3Brazil10.3% ↓0.6
10.3%
77.9% ↑0.243.7%T12035
4Argentina9.7% ↑0.1
9.7%
88.1% ↓0.565.8%T12219
5England8.5% ↓0.4
8.5%
88.1% ↓0.764.2%T12180
6Germany8.4% ↑1.0
8.4%
88.4% ↓0.766.6%T12031
7Netherlands7.3% ↑0.7
7.3%
77.3% ↓0.252.7%T12069
8Morocco6.2% ↓0.2
6.2%
72.6% ↓0.335.3%T12080
9Portugal4.8% ↓0.2
4.8%
84.2%57.7%T12077
10Turkey3.2% ↓0.5
3.2%
34.3% ↓0.87.3%T21754
11Belgium3.2% ↓0.1
3.2%
82.0% ↑1.055.3%T12042
12USA1.3% ↓0.2
1.3%
80.0% ↑0.752.9%T21928
13Switzerland1.2% ↑0.1
1.2%
64.4% ↓0.337.1%T21906
14Mexico1.1%
1.1%
82.0% ↓0.550.3%T21945
15Japan1.0%
1.0%
52.1% ↑0.822.6%T21940
16Uruguay0.9% ↓0.2
0.9%
66.0% ↓0.421.7%T11932
17Croatia0.9% ↓0.1
0.9%
64.3% ↑0.723.5%T22024
18Colombia0.9% ↑0.1
0.9%
65.8% ↑0.728.5%T21966
19Norway0.8% ↓0.1
0.8%
49.8%16.6%T21802
20Senegal0.7% ↓0.2
0.7%
52.2% ↑1.117.9%T21972

12 因子场外因素综合(场外维度)

#因子权重主要受益者主要受损者影响描述
1定位球威胁5%英格兰/德国/荷兰西班牙/日本英格兰定位球转化28%碾压级
2点球大战历史3%德国/阿根廷/克罗地亚英格兰/西班牙/荷兰英格兰1-4(20%) VS 德国5-1(83%)
3高原效应3%墨西哥南非/捷克Azteca 2250m氧气少23%
4休息日不对称4%G/H/I组J/K/L组J/K/L组R32前仅2天恢复
5球迷基数3%墨西哥/美国亚洲/非洲3700万墨裔在美,半个主场
6黄牌/红牌风险2%墨西哥墨西哥首场3红,淘汰赛隐患
7板凳深度5%法国/英格兰/西班牙挪威/摩洛哥加时赛后差距指数级放大
8Plan B战术3%法国/阿根廷西班牙/摩洛哥西班牙只会Tiki-taka,控不住就崩
9VAR点球倾向2%英格兰/阿根廷凯恩92%点球率=基本每场1球
10球场宽度1%巴西(边锋)AT&T 72m极宽→巴西边锋起飞
11疲劳指数3%阿根廷(梅西仅2800min)英格兰(贝林4800+)贝林厄姆赛季近5000分钟→决赛堪忧
12历史克制关系2%法国(对巴西)巴西(对法国)巴西"恐法症"1998/2006连败

夺冠赔率共识(多平台综合)

来源:Bet365 / William Hill / Pinnacle / Betfair / OddsPortal — 各平台权重不超过12%

排名球队综合赔率隐含概率趋势
1西班牙5.5018.2%
2法国5.7517.4%
3阿根廷6.5015.4%
4英格兰7.0014.3%
5巴西7.5013.3%
6葡萄牙11.009.1%
7德国12.008.3%
8荷兰17.005.9%
9摩洛哥21.004.8%
10比利时26.003.8%

多源数据聚合 · 综合信心指数

6大数据源 · 每源权重≤12% · 赔率30% + 社媒25% + 球迷社区25% + 专家20% · 数据截至 2026-06-14 20:49 UTC

#球队综合指数赔率信心社媒情绪球迷热度专家评级趋势
1Spain
0.804 ↑0.661
0.810.720.810.90
2France
0.771 ↑0.324
0.810.680.750.85
3Argentina
0.743 ↑0.235
0.620.750.880.75
4England
0.693 ↓0.362
0.700.650.760.65
5Brazil
0.638 ↓0.534
0.580.700.710.55
6Portugal
0.610 ↑0.286
0.690.620.670.40
7Germany
0.510 ↑0.231
0.470.580.620.35
8Netherlands
0.440 ↓0.197
0.360.550.580.25
9Morocco
0.343 ↓0.750
0.000.600.650.15
10USA
0.309 ↓1.241
0.000.520.680.05
11Mexico
0.306 ↓0.184
0.000.550.630.05
12Japan
0.282 ↓0.158
0.000.500.590.05
13Uruguay
0.269
0.000.500.540.05
14South Korea
0.267 ↓0.015
0.000.480.550.05
15Belgium
0.261 ↑0.118
0.000.480.480.10
16DR Congo
0.260
0.000.500.500.05
17Scotland
0.260 ↓1.248
0.000.500.500.05
18Uzbekistan
0.260
0.000.500.500.05
19Ghana
0.260 ↑0.061
0.000.500.500.05
20Bosnia & Herzegovina
0.260
0.000.500.500.05

数据源: Bet365/William Hill/Pinnacle/Betfair | Twitter/Reddit/Weibo/虎扑/懂球帝 | BBC/Guardian/ESPN/L'Equipe/Gazzetta/The Athletic/Kicker/Marca

预测夺冠路径(蒙特卡洛最高概率路径)

基于 10,000 次蒙特卡洛模拟的最可能淘汰赛路径。金色 = 胜者晋级,数字 = 晋级概率。

R32
Mexico68%
Morocco32%
Switzerland37%
Australia63%
Brazil16%
Ivory Coast84%
USA52%
Japan48%
Germany24%
South Korea76%
Netherlands10%
Qatar90%
Belgium40%
Senegal60%
Spain8%
Austria92%
France20%
Colombia80%
Argentina25%
Croatia75%
Portugal14%
Egypt86%
England19%
Uruguay81%
R16
Morocco27%
Switzerland73%
Brazil37%
Japan63%
Germany55%
Netherlands45%
Belgium75%
Spain25%
France52%
Argentina48%
Portugal64%
England36%
QF
Morocco44%
Brazil56%
Netherlands50%
Netherlands50%
Spain48%
Argentina52%
England50%
England50%
SF
Morocco48%
Netherlands52%
Spain42%
England58%
FINAL
Morocco71%
Spain29%
CHAMPION
Spain

淘汰赛预测 (R32 → 冠军)

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的每轮对阵预测。绿色 = 主队胜率,蓝色 = 客队胜率。🏆 = 预测晋级。

轮次主队主胜概率客胜概率客队
R32Mexico
68%
vs
32%
Morocco 🏆
R32Switzerland 🏆
37%
vs
63%
Australia
R32Brazil 🏆
16%
vs
84%
Ivory Coast
R32USA
52%
vs
48%
Japan 🏆
R32Germany 🏆
24%
vs
76%
South Korea
R32Netherlands 🏆
10%
vs
90%
Qatar
R32Belgium 🏆
40%
vs
60%
Senegal
R32Spain 🏆
8%
vs
92%
Austria
R32France 🏆
20%
vs
80%
Colombia
R32Argentina 🏆
25%
vs
75%
Croatia
R32Portugal 🏆
14%
vs
86%
Egypt
R32England 🏆
19%
vs
81%
Uruguay
R16Morocco 🏆
27%
vs
73%
Switzerland
R16Brazil 🏆
37%
vs
63%
Japan
R16Germany
55%
vs
45%
Netherlands 🏆
R16Belgium
75%
vs
25%
Spain 🏆
R16France
52%
vs
48%
Argentina 🏆
R16Portugal
64%
vs
36%
England 🏆
QFMorocco 🏆
44%
vs
56%
Brazil
QFNetherlands 🏆
50%
vs
50%
Netherlands 🏆
QFSpain 🏆
48%
vs
52%
Argentina
QFEngland 🏆
50%
vs
50%
England 🏆
SFMorocco 🏆
48%
vs
52%
Netherlands
SFSpain 🏆
42%
vs
58%
England

小组出线概率一览

基于蒙特卡洛 10,000 次模拟。前两名直接晋级,最佳8个第3名晋级。金色 = 小组头名热门,银灰 = 小组第二热门。

Group A

#TeamAdv1st
1Mexico ↓0.5
82%
50%
2South Korea ↑0.1
78%
41%
3Czech Republic ↑0.1
26%
6%
4South Africa ↑0.3
14%
2%

Group B

#TeamAdv1st
1Switzerland ↓0.3
64%
37%
2Qatar ↑0.1
54%
25%
3Canada ↑0.1
42%
19%
4Bosnia and Herzegovina
40%
19%

Group C

#TeamAdv1st
1Brazil ↑0.2
78%
44%
2Morocco ↓0.3
73%
35%
3Scotland ↓0.5
46%
19%
4Haiti ↑0.6
4%
2%

Group D

#TeamAdv1st
1USA ↑0.7
80%
53%
2Australia ↓0.6
78%
39%
3Turkey ↓0.8
34%
7%
4Paraguay ↑0.8
8%
1%

Group E

#TeamAdv1st
1Germany ↓0.7
88%
67%
2Ivory Coast ↓2.0
55%
19%
3Ecuador ↑2.4
38%
11%
4Curaçao ↑0.3
19%
4%

Group F

#TeamAdv1st
1Netherlands ↓0.2
77%
53%
2Japan ↑0.8
52%
23%
3Sweden ↓0.6
37%
12%
4Tunisia ↑0.1
33%
12%

Group G

#TeamAdv1st
1Belgium ↑1.0
82%
55%
2Egypt ↑0.1
54%
21%
3Iran ↓1.3
50%
20%
4New Zealand ↑0.2
14%
4%

Group H

#TeamAdv1st
1Spain ↓0.1
92%
70%
2Uruguay ↓0.4
66%
22%
3Cape Verde ↑0.1
28%
6%
4Saudi Arabia ↑0.3
14%
2%

Group I

#TeamAdv1st
1France ↓0.8
87%
64%
2Senegal ↑1.1
52%
18%
3Norway
50%
17%
4Iraq ↓0.3
11%
2%

Group J

#TeamAdv1st
1Argentina ↓0.5
88%
66%
2Austria ↑0.8
56%
19%
3Algeria
40%
12%
4Jordan ↓0.3
16%
4%

Group K

#TeamAdv1st
1Portugal
84%
58%
2Colombia ↑0.7
66%
28%
3DR Congo ↑0.5
26%
7%
4Uzbekistan ↓1.2
24%
7%

Group L

#TeamAdv1st
1England ↓0.7
88%
64%
2Croatia ↑0.7
64%
24%
3Ghana ↑0.4
28%
7%
4Panama ↓0.4
20%
5%

小组赛 72 场完整预测

含 xG / 半场比分 / 全场比分 / 黄红牌 / 角球 / 犯规 / 射门(射正) / 控球率 / 越位 · 已赛以CF标记 · 绿色边框=确认

日期主队客队xGHTFT黄牌红牌角球犯规射门(射正)控球越位
A2026-06-12MexicoSouth Korea2.16-1.320-02-03+31+072516(6)52.8-47.22
A2026-06-12South AfricaCzech Republic1.39-1.790-10-11+00+082926(9)48.7-51.33
A2026-06-18MexicoCzech Republic2.04-1.190-11-21+00+042231(11)56.2-43.82
A2026-06-18South KoreaSouth Africa2.02-1.431-02-03+40+0142925(9)54.7-45.32
A2026-06-24MexicoSouth Africa2.11-1.05CF2-04+40+083425(9)57.5-42.52
A2026-06-24South KoreaCzech Republic1.84-1.68CF2-13+30+0112130(10)53.4-46.64
B2026-06-12SwitzerlandCanada1.72-1.311-23-20+00+0112624(9)54.2-45.83
B2026-06-12QatarBosnia and Herzegovina1.43-1.210-01-13+30+0112034(12)50.9-49.14
B2026-06-18SwitzerlandBosnia and Herzegovina2.05-1.471-12-11+10+072825(9)56.5-43.50
B2026-06-18CanadaQatar1.27-1.120-00-22+30+042620(7)51.4-48.63
B2026-06-24SwitzerlandQatar1.49-1.27CF1-12+20+092728(10)55.6-44.42
B2026-06-24CanadaBosnia and Herzegovina1.73-1.29CF1-12+30+082822(8)52.4-47.63
C2026-06-12BrazilMorocco2.19-1.91CF1-10+10+0121927(10)50.4-49.64
C2026-06-12ScotlandHaiti1.81-1.18CF1-03+30+0113323(8)56.4-43.66
C2026-06-18BrazilScotland2.42-1.312-05-02+10+0122224(8)57.2-42.82
C2026-06-18MoroccoHaiti2.64-1.071-02-16+60+083226(10)63.2-36.83
C2026-06-24BrazilHaiti2.75-0.973-04-12+31+073427(10)63.6-36.44
C2026-06-24MoroccoScotland2.33-1.441-02-13+20+0152520(7)56.9-43.11
D2026-06-12USAParaguay2.14-0.91CF4-13+40+092322(8)55.6-44.41
D2026-06-12AustraliaTurkey1.13-1.94CF2-02+20+073417(6)51.2-48.82
D2026-06-18USAAustralia2.09-1.251-03-11+20+052723(8)53.2-46.83
D2026-06-18ParaguayTurkey0.82-1.970-11-32+10+0102121(7)48.8-51.23
D2026-06-24USATurkey1.41-1.390-21-33+40+093040(14)54.4-45.69
D2026-06-24ParaguayAustralia1.25-1.741-11-33+30+0103127(9)47.6-52.42
E2026-06-12GermanyEcuador2.54-1.190-13-21+20+0121627(10)57.6-42.44
E2026-06-12Ivory CoastCuraçao2.23-1.311-05-22+30+192525(9)54.2-45.80
E2026-06-18GermanyIvory Coast2.67-1.582-24-31+20+0132629(11)58.6-41.44
E2026-06-18EcuadorCuraçao1.68-1.241-02-02+10+082715(6)55.3-44.70
E2026-06-24GermanyCuraçao3.21-1.111-04-11+20+0142031(11)62.9-37.12
E2026-06-24EcuadorIvory Coast1.40-1.771-21-62+20+052630(11)51.1-48.93
F2026-06-12NetherlandsJapan2.46-1.731-02-01+00+091819(7)53.5-46.51
F2026-06-12SwedenTunisia1.17-1.140-01-12+30+042228(10)49.6-50.40
F2026-06-18NetherlandsSweden1.67-0.951-02-01+20+0112327(9)59.3-40.74
F2026-06-18JapanTunisia2.13-1.681-22-40+10+0132927(10)55.4-44.63
F2026-06-24NetherlandsTunisia2.72-1.500-23-43+30+0181833(12)58.9-41.12
F2026-06-24JapanSweden1.31-1.062-02-01+10+0112012(4)55.8-44.23
G2026-06-12BelgiumEgypt2.40-1.632-02-02+31+072327(10)57.6-42.40
G2026-06-12IranNew Zealand2.22-1.251-01-22+20+051835(13)57.5-42.50
G2026-06-18BelgiumIran2.34-1.541-02-01+20+0112621(8)55.0-45.06
G2026-06-18EgyptNew Zealand2.34-1.291-02-13+30+082128(10)54.8-45.21
G2026-06-24BelgiumNew Zealand3.00-1.121-01-32+30+072928(10)62.4-37.60
G2026-06-24EgyptIran1.82-1.781-04-12+10+072729(10)47.3-52.72
H2026-06-12SpainCape Verde3.38-1.330-02-02+30+072327(9)66.9-33.14
H2026-06-12UruguaySaudi Arabia2.17-0.980-00-12+20+0102631(11)57.3-42.72
H2026-06-18SpainSaudi Arabia3.37-0.940-04-11+20+052627(9)66.6-33.46
H2026-06-18UruguayCape Verde2.17-1.380-03-02+10+092928(10)57.6-42.41
H2026-06-24SpainUruguay2.80-1.731-23-42+30+062031(11)59.3-40.71
H2026-06-24Cape VerdeSaudi Arabia1.66-1.181-11-22+30+072723(8)49.7-50.34
I2026-06-12FranceSenegal2.87-1.732-08-01+20+0102833(12)56.4-43.62
I2026-06-12NorwayIraq2.14-1.061-11-23+30+0122918(6)53.7-46.34
I2026-06-18FranceNorway2.84-1.670-11-14+40+092426(9)60.4-39.64
I2026-06-18SenegalIraq2.22-1.080-00-04+30+0102318(7)57.7-42.32
I2026-06-24FranceIraq3.25-0.951-04-12+20+0102331(11)64.1-35.94
I2026-06-24SenegalNorway1.94-1.890-21-24+30+072623(9)54.0-46.05
J2026-06-12ArgentinaAustria2.74-1.671-11-24+40+0102534(12)61.2-38.82
J2026-06-12AlgeriaJordan2.06-1.370-20-22+20+093030(11)53.6-46.40
J2026-06-18ArgentinaAlgeria2.95-1.490-11-23+30+0113421(7)62.4-37.64
J2026-06-18AustriaJordan2.30-1.284-04-02+30+0152232(12)54.9-45.11
J2026-06-24ArgentinaJordan3.37-1.142-06-12+11+073228(10)66.1-33.91
J2026-06-24AustriaAlgeria2.01-1.670-00-02+20+0133525(9)51.3-48.71
K2026-06-12PortugalColombia2.12-1.560-02-21+20+071926(10)53.3-46.73
K2026-06-12UzbekistanDR Congo1.69-1.691-14-13+30+0112124(9)50.8-49.22
K2026-06-18PortugalUzbekistan2.82-1.240-12-35+40+092133(12)60.1-39.91
K2026-06-18ColombiaDR Congo2.13-1.270-01-12+10+0152237(13)57.5-42.51
K2026-06-24PortugalDR Congo2.85-1.252-02-02+30+0132229(10)60.8-39.24
K2026-06-24ColombiaUzbekistan2.11-1.250-10-13+20+073725(9)56.8-43.23
L2026-06-12EnglandCroatia2.74-1.801-35-42+20+0172635(12)54.4-45.62
L2026-06-12GhanaPanama1.81-1.600-02-12+10+062030(11)47.3-52.73
L2026-06-18EnglandGhana3.15-1.361-02-22+20+0131834(12)64.4-35.66
L2026-06-18CroatiaPanama2.39-1.392-03-02+20+092624(8)57.3-42.73
L2026-06-24EnglandPanama3.27-1.251-01-03+30+0101939(14)61.7-38.35
L2026-06-24CroatiaGhana2.30-1.520-20-24+30+0142734(12)60.0-40.05

模型说明 · 数据来源 · 更新机制

模型架构: ELO评分系统 (FIFA 2026-06-11 排名转换) + Poisson进球分布模型 + 蒙特卡洛模拟 (10,000 次完整赛会)

动态更新: 每场已赛结果自动纳入ELO系统 (K=60 世界杯权重)。confirmed_results.py 更新后,build.py 自动重建报告。

比分生成: Poisson分布从期望进球 (xG) 抽样。上半场占全场进球的43%(基于2022世界杯实际数据)。卡牌/角球/犯规/控球基于球队风格系数+ELO差。

2022回测: 小组头名预测准确率 48%(随机基准25%),前二准确率待验证。

数据来源: Wikipedia 2026 FIFA World Cup (资格赛结果+抽签), FIFA Mens Ranking (2026-06-11), Transfermarkt (身价参考), 多方博彩平台赔率共识。

局限: 未纳入实时伤病/天气/裁判指派/更衣室动态等。模型输出为概率分布,单场比赛高度不确定。

自动部署: GitHub Actions 每30分钟运行 build.py → 更新 report_2026.html → Cloudflare Pages 自动部署。上次构建: 2026-06-14 20:49 UTC

免责: 仅供足球数据研究参考,不构成任何博彩建议。预测与实际结果可能存在显著偏差。