2026 FIFA World Cup · 终极预测报告

ELO + Poisson + 12 因子综合模型 · 10,000 次蒙特卡洛模拟 · 2026-06-27 06:48 UTC

模型冠军

Argentina

概率 12.2%

2022回测准确率

48%

小组头名预测 (随机25%)

已赛确认

8 / 80

实时ELO更新

数据源

FIFA + Wiki

ELO · Poisson · MC

实时比分 · Live Scoreboard

自动刷新 · 每1秒 (实时)

当前无进行中比赛

已赛结果确认

8场小组赛已完赛。ELO评分已自动更新 (K=60 世界杯权重)。绿色左侧边框 = 已赛确认

组	主队	比分	客队	ELO变化
A	Mexico	2-0	South Africa	+11 / -11
A	South Korea	2-1	Czech Republic	+22 / -22
B	Canada	1-1	Bosnia and Herzegovina	-9 / +9
B	Qatar	1-1	Switzerland	+19 / -19
C	Brazil	1-1	Morocco	+7 / -7
C	Haiti	0-1	Scotland	-16 / +16
D	USA	4-1	Paraguay	+17 / -17
D	Australia	2-0	Turkey	+31 / -31

夺冠概率 Top 20（蒙特卡洛 10,000 次模拟）

ELO评分 + Poisson进球模型 · 已赛ELO已更新 · 含加时+点球决胜 · 数据截至 2026-06-27 06:48 UTC

#	球队	夺冠	概率条	小组出线	小组第1	级别	ELO
1	Spain	12.2% ↑0.2	12.2%	91.5% ↓0.8	69.8%	T1	2127
2	France	11.1%	11.1%	87.4% ↓0.6	63.2%	T1	2179
3	Brazil	10.4% ↓0.4	10.4%	78.4% ↑0.7	43.5%	T1	2008
4	Argentina	8.8% ↓0.8	8.8%	87.9% ↓0.7	65.3%	T1	2185
5	Germany	8.1% ↑0.8	8.1%	88.3% ↓0.7	67.1%	T1	2031
6	England	8.0% ↓0.9	8.0%	88.8%	64.7%	T1	2148
7	Netherlands	7.0% ↑0.3	7.0%	77.5%	52.1%	T1	2069
8	Morocco	6.1% ↓0.4	6.1%	72.2% ↓0.8	35.9%	T1	2078
9	Portugal	5.2% ↑0.2	5.2%	84.5% ↑0.3	58.2%	T1	2077
10	Turkey	3.6% ↓0.1	3.6%	35.3% ↑0.2	8.0%	T2	1753
11	Belgium	3.4% ↑0.1	3.4%	81.5% ↑0.5	55.4%	T1	2037
12	USA	1.4%	1.4%	79.3%	52.4%	T2	1903
13	Mexico	1.3% ↑0.1	1.3%	81.4% ↓1.1	50.6%	T2	1945
14	Uruguay	1.3% ↑0.2	1.3%	66.3% ↓0.1	22.0%	T1	1932
15	Switzerland	1.2% ↑0.1	1.2%	63.5% ↓1.2	37.0%	T2	1906
16	Japan	1.2% ↑0.1	1.2%	52.2% ↑0.9	23.6%	T2	1940
17	Croatia	1.0%	1.0%	63.5% ↓0.2	24.0%	T2	2024
18	Senegal	1.0%	1.0%	52.5% ↑1.4	18.2%	T2	1972
19	Colombia	0.9% ↑0.1	0.9%	66.0% ↑0.9	28.4%	T2	1966
20	Norway	0.8% ↓0.2	0.8%	49.2% ↓0.6	16.6%	T2	1802

12 因子场外因素综合（场外维度）

#	因子	权重	主要受益者	主要受损者	影响描述
1	定位球威胁	5%	英格兰/德国/荷兰	西班牙/日本	英格兰定位球转化28%碾压级
2	点球大战历史	3%	德国/阿根廷/克罗地亚	英格兰/西班牙/荷兰	英格兰1-4(20%) VS 德国5-1(83%)
3	高原效应	3%	墨西哥	南非/捷克	Azteca 2250m氧气少23%
4	休息日不对称	4%	G/H/I组	J/K/L组	J/K/L组R32前仅2天恢复
5	球迷基数	3%	墨西哥/美国	亚洲/非洲	3700万墨裔在美，半个主场
6	黄牌/红牌风险	2%	—	墨西哥	墨西哥首场3红，淘汰赛隐患
7	板凳深度	5%	法国/英格兰/西班牙	挪威/摩洛哥	加时赛后差距指数级放大
8	Plan B战术	3%	法国/阿根廷	西班牙/摩洛哥	西班牙只会Tiki-taka，控不住就崩
9	VAR点球倾向	2%	英格兰/阿根廷	—	凯恩92%点球率=基本每场1球
10	球场宽度	1%	巴西(边锋)	—	AT&T 72m极宽→巴西边锋起飞
11	疲劳指数	3%	阿根廷(梅西仅2800min)	英格兰(贝林4800+)	贝林厄姆赛季近5000分钟→决赛堪忧
12	历史克制关系	2%	法国(对巴西)	巴西(对法国)	巴西"恐法症"1998/2006连败

夺冠赔率共识（多平台综合）

来源：Bet365 / William Hill / Pinnacle / Betfair / OddsPortal — 各平台权重不超过12%

排名	球队	综合赔率	隐含概率	趋势
1	西班牙	5.50	18.2%	↑
2	法国	5.75	17.4%	→
3	阿根廷	6.50	15.4%	→
4	英格兰	7.00	14.3%	→
5	巴西	7.50	13.3%	↓
6	葡萄牙	11.00	9.1%	→
7	德国	12.00	8.3%	→
8	荷兰	17.00	5.9%	→
9	摩洛哥	21.00	4.8%	↑
10	比利时	26.00	3.8%	↓

多源数据聚合 · 综合信心指数

6大数据源 · 每源权重≤12% · 赔率30% + 社媒25% + 球迷社区25% + 专家20% · 数据截至 2026-06-27 06:48 UTC

#	球队	综合指数	赔率信心	社媒情绪	球迷热度	专家评级	趋势
1	England	1.510 ↑0.455	0.70	0.26	0.94	5.00	↑
2	Brazil	1.200 ↑0.028	0.50	0.47	0.65	3.85	↑
3	France	1.120 ↑0.673	0.84	0.67	0.65	2.69	↑
4	Germany	1.105 ↑0.826	0.31	0.67	0.62	3.46	↑
5	Spain	1.103 ↑0.960	0.75	0.47	0.58	3.08	↑
6	Argentina	1.032 ↑0.524	0.79	0.51	0.52	2.69	↑
7	USA	0.846 ↓0.704	0.00	0.74	0.49	2.69	↑
8	Norway	0.820	0.00	0.81	0.62	2.31	↑
9	Egypt	0.818	0.00	1.00	0.42	2.31	→
10	Uruguay	0.792	0.00	0.12	0.58	3.08	↑
11	Australia	0.716 ↑0.127	0.00	1.00	0.32	1.93	→
12	Saudi Arabia	0.667	0.00	0.00	0.52	2.69	↑
13	Ecuador	0.624 ↑0.675	0.00	1.00	0.26	1.54	→
14	Portugal	0.604 ↑0.280	0.62	0.52	0.23	1.16	→
15	Scotland	0.598 ↓0.910	0.00	0.43	0.42	1.93	→
16	Ghana	0.582 ↑0.383	0.00	0.83	0.26	1.54	→
17	Iran	0.554 ↑0.030	0.00	1.00	0.29	1.16	→
18	Belgium	0.529 ↑0.386	0.00	0.90	0.29	1.16	→
19	Mexico	0.516 ↑0.026	0.00	0.94	0.20	1.16	→
20	Austria	0.470	0.00	0.02	0.32	1.93	→

数据源: Bet365/William Hill/Pinnacle/Betfair | Twitter/Reddit/Weibo/虎扑/懂球帝 | BBC/Guardian/ESPN/L'Equipe/Gazzetta/The Athletic/Kicker/Marca

预测夺冠路径（蒙特卡洛最高概率路径）

基于 10,000 次蒙特卡洛模拟的最可能淘汰赛路径。金色 = 胜者晋级，数字 = 晋级概率。

R32

Mexico68%

Morocco32%

Switzerland36%

Australia64%

Brazil18%

Ivory Coast82%

USA55%

Japan45%

Germany24%

South Korea76%

Netherlands10%

Qatar90%

Belgium41%

Senegal59%

Spain13%

Austria87%

France23%

Colombia77%

Argentina28%

Croatia72%

Portugal13%

Egypt87%

England22%

Uruguay78%

→

R16

Morocco27%

Switzerland73%

Brazil40%

Japan60%

Germany55%

Netherlands45%

Belgium63%

Spain37%

France51%

Argentina49%

Portugal60%

England40%

→

Morocco40%

Brazil60%

Netherlands50%

Spain58%

Argentina42%

England50%

→

Morocco49%

Netherlands51%

Argentina45%

England55%

→

FINAL

Morocco65%

Argentina35%

→

CHAMPION

Argentina

淘汰赛预测 (R32 → 冠军)

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的每轮对阵预测。绿色 = 主队胜率，蓝色 = 客队胜率。🏆 = 预测晋级。

轮次	主队	主胜概率		客胜概率	客队
R32	Mexico	68%	vs	32%	Morocco 🏆
R32	Switzerland 🏆	36%	vs	64%	Australia
R32	Brazil 🏆	18%	vs	82%	Ivory Coast
R32	USA	55%	vs	45%	Japan 🏆
R32	Germany 🏆	24%	vs	76%	South Korea
R32	Netherlands 🏆	10%	vs	90%	Qatar
R32	Belgium 🏆	41%	vs	59%	Senegal
R32	Spain 🏆	13%	vs	87%	Austria
R32	France 🏆	23%	vs	77%	Colombia
R32	Argentina 🏆	28%	vs	72%	Croatia
R32	Portugal 🏆	13%	vs	87%	Egypt
R32	England 🏆	22%	vs	78%	Uruguay
R16	Morocco 🏆	27%	vs	73%	Switzerland
R16	Brazil 🏆	40%	vs	60%	Japan
R16	Germany	55%	vs	45%	Netherlands 🏆
R16	Belgium	63%	vs	37%	Spain 🏆
R16	France	51%	vs	49%	Argentina 🏆
R16	Portugal	60%	vs	40%	England 🏆
QF	Morocco 🏆	40%	vs	60%	Brazil
QF	Netherlands 🏆	50%	vs	50%	Netherlands 🏆
QF	Spain	58%	vs	42%	Argentina 🏆
QF	England 🏆	50%	vs	50%	England 🏆
SF	Morocco 🏆	49%	vs	51%	Netherlands
SF	Argentina 🏆	45%	vs	55%	England

小组出线概率一览

基于蒙特卡洛 10,000 次模拟。前两名直接晋级，最佳8个第3名晋级。金色 = 小组头名热门，银灰 = 小组第二热门。

Group A

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Mexico ↓1.1	81%	51%
2	South Korea ↓0.3	78%	41%
3	Czech Republic ↑1.2	27%	6%
4	South Africa ↑0.2	14%	3%

Group B

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Switzerland ↓1.2	63%	37%
2	Qatar ↓0.7	53%	25%
3	Canada ↑0.8	42%	19%
4	Bosnia and Herzegovina ↑1.1	41%	19%

Group C

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Brazil ↑0.7	78%	43%
2	Morocco ↓0.8	72%	36%
3	Scotland	46%	19%
4	Haiti ↑0.1	3%	1%

Group D

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	USA	79%	52%
2	Australia ↓0.2	79%	39%
3	Turkey ↑0.2	35%	8%
4	Paraguay ↓0.1	7%	1%

Group E

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Germany ↓0.7	88%	67%
2	Ivory Coast ↓1.2	56%	19%
3	Ecuador ↑1.5	37%	10%
4	Curaçao ↑0.4	19%	4%

Group F

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Netherlands	78%	52%
2	Japan ↑0.9	52%	24%
3	Sweden ↓0.9	37%	13%
4	Tunisia	33%	12%

Group G

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Belgium ↑0.5	81%	55%
2	Egypt ↓0.1	53%	22%
3	Iran ↓1.1	51%	19%
4	New Zealand ↑0.7	15%	4%

Group H

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Spain ↓0.8	91%	70%
2	Uruguay ↓0.1	66%	22%
3	Cape Verde ↑0.1	28%	6%
4	Saudi Arabia ↑0.8	14%	2%

Group I

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	France ↓0.6	87%	63%
2	Senegal ↑1.4	52%	18%
3	Norway ↓0.6	49%	17%
4	Iraq ↓0.2	11%	2%

Group J

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Argentina ↓0.7	88%	65%
2	Austria ↑0.6	56%	19%
3	Algeria ↑0.3	40%	12%
4	Jordan ↓0.3	16%	3%

Group K

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	Portugal ↑0.3	85%	58%
2	Colombia ↑0.9	66%	28%
3	DR Congo ↓0.4	25%	7%
4	Uzbekistan ↓0.8	25%	7%

Group L

#	Team	Adv	1st
1	England	89%	65%
2	Croatia ↓0.2	63%	24%
3	Ghana ↑0.3	27%	7%
4	Panama	20%	5%

小组赛 72 场完整预测

含 xG / 半场比分 / 全场比分 / 黄红牌 / 角球 / 犯规 / 射门(射正) / 控球率 / 越位 · 已赛以CF标记 · 绿色边框=确认

组	日期	主队	客队	xG	HT	FT	黄牌	红牌	角球	犯规	射门(射正)	控球	越位
A	2026-06-12	Mexico	South Korea	2.16-1.32	1-0	2-2	4+4	0+1	10	18	24(8)	52.8-47.2	3
A	2026-06-12	South Africa	Czech Republic	1.39-1.79	0-0	0-1	3+2	0+1	6	31	23(9)	48.7-51.3	2
A	2026-06-18	Mexico	Czech Republic	2.04-1.19	3-0	4-2	2+1	0+0	11	17	30(11)	56.2-43.8	3
A	2026-06-18	South Korea	South Africa	2.02-1.43	0-4	1-7	1+2	0+0	5	31	26(9)	54.7-45.3	5
A	2026-06-24	Mexico	South Africa	2.11-1.05	CF	2-0	3+2	0+0	10	32	17(6)	57.5-42.5	1
A	2026-06-24	South Korea	Czech Republic	1.84-1.68	CF	2-1	2+1	0+1	8	26	18(6)	53.4-46.6	2
B	2026-06-12	Switzerland	Canada	1.72-1.31	2-1	2-2	0+0	0+0	7	18	18(6)	54.2-45.8	3
B	2026-06-12	Qatar	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.43-1.21	1-0	2-0	2+1	0+0	11	25	19(7)	50.9-49.1	1
B	2026-06-18	Switzerland	Bosnia and Herzegovina	2.05-1.47	2-1	2-2	1+1	0+0	9	26	30(10)	56.5-43.5	1
B	2026-06-18	Canada	Qatar	1.27-1.12	1-3	1-3	1+1	0+0	7	30	27(9)	51.4-48.6	3
B	2026-06-24	Switzerland	Qatar	1.49-1.27	CF	1-1	2+2	0+0	4	16	25(9)	55.6-44.4	2
B	2026-06-24	Canada	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.73-1.29	CF	1-1	2+1	0+0	7	19	20(7)	52.4-47.6	5
C	2026-06-12	Brazil	Morocco	2.18-1.91	CF	1-1	1+2	0+0	14	28	26(9)	49.8-50.2	4
C	2026-06-12	Scotland	Haiti	1.81-1.18	CF	1-0	1+1	0+0	7	28	23(8)	56.4-43.6	2
C	2026-06-18	Brazil	Scotland	2.41-1.31	2-1	4-2	3+3	0+0	10	24	29(10)	56.5-43.5	4
C	2026-06-18	Morocco	Haiti	2.64-1.07	0-2	2-2	3+4	0+0	9	26	31(11)	63.2-36.8	1
C	2026-06-24	Brazil	Haiti	2.73-0.97	1-0	1-0	2+3	0+0	12	24	27(9)	62.9-37.1	1
C	2026-06-24	Morocco	Scotland	2.33-1.44	0-0	3-0	2+1	0+0	6	29	33(11)	56.8-43.2	4
D	2026-06-12	USA	Paraguay	2.13-0.91	CF	4-1	3+3	0+0	7	32	29(10)	55.0-45.0	4
D	2026-06-12	Australia	Turkey	1.13-1.94	CF	2-0	1+1	0+0	8	21	24(8)	51.1-48.9	2
D	2026-06-18	USA	Australia	2.08-1.24	1-1	1-2	2+3	0+0	10	19	31(11)	52.7-47.3	3
D	2026-06-18	Paraguay	Turkey	0.82-1.97	1-0	1-1	2+2	0+0	9	25	22(7)	48.7-51.3	4
D	2026-06-24	USA	Turkey	1.40-1.39	0-1	1-3	3+3	0+0	11	25	25(9)	53.7-46.3	4
D	2026-06-24	Paraguay	Australia	1.25-1.73	1-2	1-3	2+2	0+0	10	15	25(9)	47.7-52.3	2
E	2026-06-12	Germany	Ecuador	2.54-1.19	0-0	0-3	3+4	0+0	15	19	37(13)	57.6-42.4	2
E	2026-06-12	Ivory Coast	Curaçao	2.23-1.31	0-1	0-1	2+2	0+0	14	18	17(6)	54.2-45.8	4
E	2026-06-18	Germany	Ivory Coast	2.67-1.58	2-1	3-1	1+1	0+0	9	27	28(10)	58.6-41.4	5
E	2026-06-18	Ecuador	Curaçao	1.68-1.24	0-0	0-1	3+2	0+0	6	31	22(8)	55.3-44.7	3
E	2026-06-24	Germany	Curaçao	3.21-1.11	2-0	4-1	1+2	0+0	12	23	45(16)	62.9-37.1	5
E	2026-06-24	Ecuador	Ivory Coast	1.40-1.77	1-0	1-2	3+2	0+0	8	21	18(6)	51.1-48.9	3
F	2026-06-12	Netherlands	Japan	2.46-1.73	1-1	4-2	2+2	0+0	12	23	24(9)	53.5-46.5	5
F	2026-06-12	Sweden	Tunisia	1.17-1.14	0-1	1-2	5+6	0+0	6	26	19(7)	49.6-50.4	1
F	2026-06-18	Netherlands	Sweden	1.67-0.95	1-2	2-2	1+1	0+0	6	22	30(11)	59.3-40.7	6
F	2026-06-18	Japan	Tunisia	2.13-1.68	1-1	3-1	1+1	0+0	10	18	33(12)	55.4-44.6	3
F	2026-06-24	Netherlands	Tunisia	2.72-1.50	3-2	3-3	2+3	0+0	15	31	34(12)	58.9-41.1	4
F	2026-06-24	Japan	Sweden	1.31-1.06	2-0	2-0	2+2	0+0	7	13	29(10)	55.8-44.2	4
G	2026-06-12	Belgium	Egypt	2.40-1.61	1-0	2-0	2+2	0+0	9	21	32(11)	58.2-41.8	0
G	2026-06-12	Iran	New Zealand	2.22-1.25	2-1	3-2	3+2	0+0	11	27	20(8)	57.5-42.5	1
G	2026-06-18	Belgium	Iran	2.33-1.54	1-2	1-2	2+2	0+0	10	18	38(13)	54.8-45.2	1
G	2026-06-18	Egypt	New Zealand	2.32-1.29	0-0	0-2	0+0	0+0	5	32	33(12)	54.1-45.9	4
G	2026-06-24	Belgium	New Zealand	3.00-1.12	0-0	0-1	2+3	0+0	5	24	32(11)	62.3-37.7	4
G	2026-06-24	Egypt	Iran	1.81-1.78	0-0	0-1	1+1	0+0	11	37	23(9)	46.7-53.3	2
H	2026-06-12	Spain	Cape Verde	3.29-1.33	2-0	8-1	1+2	0+0	10	19	28(10)	64.2-35.8	2
H	2026-06-12	Uruguay	Saudi Arabia	2.17-0.98	0-0	2-0	2+2	0+0	11	28	27(10)	57.4-42.6	3
H	2026-06-18	Spain	Saudi Arabia	3.28-0.94	2-0	7-0	2+3	0+0	13	24	34(12)	64.0-36.0	4
H	2026-06-18	Uruguay	Cape Verde	2.17-1.38	0-0	1-1	1+0	0+0	12	21	28(9)	57.6-42.4	2
H	2026-06-24	Spain	Uruguay	2.73-1.73	0-2	1-3	3+4	0+0	11	20	24(9)	56.6-43.4	4
H	2026-06-24	Cape Verde	Saudi Arabia	1.66-1.18	1-0	2-1	0+1	0+0	5	23	27(9)	49.8-50.2	1
I	2026-06-12	France	Senegal	2.85-1.73	4-0	6-1	3+3	0+0	12	24	32(11)	55.7-44.3	4
I	2026-06-12	Norway	Iraq	2.14-1.06	3-2	3-3	4+5	0+0	12	25	24(9)	53.7-46.3	1
I	2026-06-18	France	Norway	2.82-1.67	2-0	3-0	3+3	0+0	15	27	29(10)	59.7-40.3	0
I	2026-06-18	Senegal	Iraq	2.22-1.08	0-1	3-1	2+3	0+0	7	35	14(5)	57.7-42.3	2
I	2026-06-24	France	Iraq	3.23-0.95	0-0	0-3	1+2	0+0	11	20	23(8)	63.3-36.7	3
I	2026-06-24	Senegal	Norway	1.94-1.89	0-0	1-1	1+0	0+0	4	30	33(12)	54.0-46.0	3
J	2026-06-12	Argentina	Austria	2.72-1.67	4-1	6-1	3+2	0+0	9	24	28(10)	60.4-39.6	2
J	2026-06-12	Algeria	Jordan	2.06-1.37	4-1	5-2	2+1	0+0	4	24	21(7)	53.6-46.4	1
J	2026-06-18	Argentina	Algeria	2.92-1.49	1-0	2-1	1+1	0+0	12	29	33(12)	61.6-38.4	4
J	2026-06-18	Austria	Jordan	2.30-1.28	0-0	2-2	1+2	0+0	14	21	33(12)	54.8-45.2	4
J	2026-06-24	Argentina	Jordan	3.34-1.14	0-1	0-4	2+1	0+0	8	32	33(12)	65.2-34.8	4
J	2026-06-24	Austria	Algeria	2.01-1.67	0-0	2-3	3+3	0+0	11	17	29(10)	51.2-48.8	2
K	2026-06-12	Portugal	Colombia	2.12-1.56	0-0	0-0	2+3	0+0	8	24	19(7)	53.3-46.7	2
K	2026-06-12	Uzbekistan	DR Congo	1.69-1.69	1-1	2-3	0+0	0+0	4	33	22(8)	50.8-49.2	3
K	2026-06-18	Portugal	Uzbekistan	2.82-1.24	1-0	1-1	3+3	0+0	12	25	27(10)	60.1-39.9	4
K	2026-06-18	Colombia	DR Congo	2.13-1.27	0-0	2-1	2+2	0+0	15	20	27(9)	57.5-42.5	3
K	2026-06-24	Portugal	DR Congo	2.85-1.25	1-1	1-1	3+3	0+0	14	30	38(13)	60.8-39.2	3
K	2026-06-24	Colombia	Uzbekistan	2.11-1.25	0-1	1-3	1+1	0+0	15	24	29(11)	56.8-43.2	1
L	2026-06-12	England	Croatia	2.72-1.80	2-0	4-1	3+4	0+0	12	33	29(10)	53.6-46.4	5
L	2026-06-12	Ghana	Panama	1.81-1.60	0-0	1-1	2+1	0+0	7	24	17(6)	47.3-52.7	1
L	2026-06-18	England	Ghana	3.12-1.36	1-1	3-2	1+2	0+0	8	21	36(13)	63.6-36.4	2
L	2026-06-18	Croatia	Panama	2.39-1.39	1-0	4-1	3+2	0+0	7	18	21(7)	57.3-42.7	1
L	2026-06-24	England	Panama	3.24-1.25	1-2	3-2	1+2	0+0	12	21	22(8)	60.9-39.1	4
L	2026-06-24	Croatia	Ghana	2.30-1.52	1-0	1-3	2+2	0+0	11	28	27(10)	60.0-40.0	2

模型说明 · 数据来源 · 更新机制

模型架构: ELO评分系统 (FIFA 2026-06-11 排名转换) + Poisson进球分布模型 + 蒙特卡洛模拟 (10,000 次完整赛会)

动态更新: 每场已赛结果自动纳入ELO系统 (K=60 世界杯权重)。confirmed_results.py 更新后，build.py 自动重建报告。

比分生成: Poisson分布从期望进球 (xG) 抽样。上半场占全场进球的43%（基于2022世界杯实际数据）。卡牌/角球/犯规/控球基于球队风格系数+ELO差。

2022回测: 小组头名预测准确率 48%（随机基准25%），前二准确率待验证。

数据来源: Wikipedia 2026 FIFA World Cup (资格赛结果+抽签), FIFA Mens Ranking (2026-06-11), Transfermarkt (身价参考), 多方博彩平台赔率共识。

局限: 未纳入实时伤病/天气/裁判指派/更衣室动态等。模型输出为概率分布，单场比赛高度不确定。

自动部署: GitHub Actions 每30分钟运行 build.py → 更新 report_2026.html → Cloudflare Pages 自动部署。上次构建: 2026-06-27 06:48 UTC

免责: 仅供足球数据研究参考，不构成任何博彩建议。预测与实际结果可能存在显著偏差。